June 24, 2026 Tropical Update Wednesday
Ghost town in the Atlantic for the next 2-weeks at least as El NIño takes the wheel
June 2026 was the 18th-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 70.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+1.2°F).
June 2026 was the 32nd-wettest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet for late June, and that’s not surprising in any given year. However, with El Niño intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there’s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin’s overall “health” or favorability will improve into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside.
That’s what we see today on the visible satellite imagery: a large plume of Saharan dust nearing the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower.
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The Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly across the tropical central and eastern Pacific is full tilt El Niño. However, you’ll note the blue in the tropical Pacific extending from the Canary Islands into the Lesser Antilles + the major “cold blob” off the northeast coast of North America. These footprints are caused/created by the overlying atmospheric winds, not due to currents from below — which operate on way too long of a time scale.
Compared to 2025 for the last 7-days:
Huge warming in the Pacific … but cooling in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere, significantly!
Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks — for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z
Ghost town in the Atlantic — but there is perhaps 1 track out of the 50-members so not exactly 0%.
Western Pacific has Mekkhala and Higos active as tropical storms, but all indications are for another long-track Typhoon to develop somewhere in the far reaches of the basin near the Dateline in the coming 2-weeks.
And, perhaps some Central Pacific activity in the coming 2 weeks along with an Eastern Pacific hurricane down the road. Only one system is imminent (70%) —> Invest 94E but that’s not going to amount to much more than a TD or TS.
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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
The moisture surges across the tropical Atlantic with origin from the ITCZ rather far south along 5°N and continues westward with the trade winds through the Caribbean.
However, there is little uptake northward in the Gulf of Mexico into the long-range (days 7-10) as a major HEAT dome builds over the Eastern U.S.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter
Fairly decent tropical PWATs in the central Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but nothing developing in late-June. Into next week, another Saharan Air Layer scours the MDR clear again.
Atlantic Basin — Very Quiet into July 2026.
Tropical Waves … multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active in the Atlantic. These waves move into the Eastern Pacific but the EPAC is marginally favorable with Invest 94E at 70%.
Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26°F reaching into the MDR (green coloring)
Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high —> Azores high)
Saharan Air Layer with African Dust — next 10 days
During the months of June and July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.
While the African dust plumes expected over the next 7-days aren’t the most intense, NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Central Atlantic by early July.
Zooming out to North Africa — origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust
Satellite Imagery — not much active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin
Satellite imagery isn’t impressive, but there are two areas of convection that are being watched … Invest 94E (70%) and another blob nearby (20%)
Invest 94E should become a tropical storm in the next few days
Western Pacific Typhoon Season
Still watching the possibility of a “Twin Tropical Cyclone” development along 150°E but the southern twin might not form after all. Instead, we’ll get a powerful Typhoon by middle of next week.
Tropical Storm Mekkhala (07W) is disorganized and will head past Japan in coming days.
Tropical Storm Higos (08W) may reach 50-knots intensity but not expected to reach Japan as a named storm.
Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks
Long track, powerful Typhoon coming out of the far eastern part of the basin near the Dateline is typical of El Niño summers —> Lots of ACE
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
- Milepost
- 967 · laid 2026-06-25T01:15:49.885000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/june-24-2026-tropical-update-wednesday
- Digest
- fd38c07fbfda0eaced95a97af0313f63b8bb451e38930760bea94021d7cb0b9a
- Machine
- JSON