{ "number": 967, "headline": "June 24, 2026 Tropical Update Wednesday", "standfirst": "Ghost town in the Atlantic for the next 2-weeks at least as El NI\u00f1o takes the wheel", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-25", "published": "2026-06-25T01:15:49.885000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet for late June, and that\u2019s not surprising in any given year. However, with El Ni\u00f1o intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there\u2019s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin\u2019s overall \u201chealth\u201d or favorability will improve into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside.

That\u2019s what we see today on the visible satellite imagery: a large plume of Saharan dust nearing the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower.

This is forecast post number 967: Day 175 of 2026. Day 24 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Evening! Separate Tropical Update in order to avoid exploding email size, and keeping the posts manageable.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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The Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly across the tropical central and eastern Pacific is full tilt El Ni\u00f1o. However, you\u2019ll note the blue in the tropical Pacific extending from the Canary Islands into the Lesser Antilles + the major \u201ccold blob\u201d off the northeast coast of North America. These footprints are caused/created by the overlying atmospheric winds, not due to currents from below \u2014 which operate on way too long of a time scale.

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Compared to 2025 for the last 7-days:

Huge warming in the Pacific \u2026 but cooling in the mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere, significantly!

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Headline Tropical Cyclone Tracks \u2014 for the next 15-days from ECMWF EPS 12z

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Ghost town in the Atlantic \u2014 but there is perhaps 1 track out of the 50-members so not exactly 0%.

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Western Pacific has Mekkhala and Higos active as tropical storms, but all indications are for another long-track Typhoon to develop somewhere in the far reaches of the basin near the Dateline in the coming 2-weeks.

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And, perhaps some Central Pacific activity in the coming 2 weeks along with an Eastern Pacific hurricane down the road. Only one system is imminent (70%) \u2014> Invest 94E but that\u2019s not going to amount to much more than a TD or TS.

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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The moisture surges across the tropical Atlantic with origin from the ITCZ rather far south along 5\u00b0N and continues westward with the trade winds through the Caribbean.

However, there is little uptake northward in the Gulf of Mexico into the long-range (days 7-10) as a major HEAT dome builds over the Eastern U.S.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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Fairly decent tropical PWATs in the central Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, but nothing developing in late-June. Into next week, another Saharan Air Layer scours the MDR clear again.

Atlantic Basin \u2014 Very Quiet into July 2026.

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Tropical Waves \u2026 multiple across the 2 basins but nothing active in the Atlantic. These waves move into the Eastern Pacific but the EPAC is marginally favorable with Invest 94E at 70%.

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Sea Surface Temperatures still below 26\u00b0F reaching into the MDR (green coloring)

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Warmer than normal in the subtropics due to persistent weak winds and a strong subtropical high pressure (Bermuda high \u2014> Azores high)

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Saharan Air Layer with African Dust \u2014 next 10 days

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During the months of June and July, winds over the African continent pick up sand and dust from the deserts and loft it into the boundary layer around 850-700 mb creating a stable and warm layer. The prevailing trade winds (east to west) in the tropics capture the dust layers and move them along into the Atlantic and eventually the Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico to provide beautiful & colorful sunsets for folks in Florida and Texas.

While the African dust plumes expected over the next 7-days aren\u2019t the most intense, NASA GEOS-5 shows a whopper in the Central Atlantic by early July.

Zooming out to North Africa \u2014 origin of the Saharan Air Layers + Sand/Dust

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Satellite Imagery \u2014 not much active convection across the entire Atlantic tropics

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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Basin

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Satellite imagery isn\u2019t impressive, but there are two areas of convection that are being watched \u2026 Invest 94E (70%) and another blob nearby (20%)

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Invest 94E should become a tropical storm in the next few days

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Western Pacific Typhoon Season

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Still watching the possibility of a \u201cTwin Tropical Cyclone\u201d development along 150\u00b0E but the southern twin might not form after all. Instead, we\u2019ll get a powerful Typhoon by middle of next week.

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Tropical Storm Mekkhala (07W) is disorganized and will head past Japan in coming days.

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Tropical Storm Higos (08W) may reach 50-knots intensity but not expected to reach Japan as a named storm.

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Full Physics ECMWF Ensembles | Next 15-days | Active Storm Tracks

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Long track, powerful Typhoon coming out of the far eastern part of the basin near the Dateline is typical of El Ni\u00f1o summers \u2014> Lots of ACE

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Atlantic tropical basin is very quiet for late June, and that\u2019s not surprising in any given year. However, with El Ni\u00f1o intensifying across the Tropical Pacific, there\u2019s little expectation that tropical storm activity will pick up anytime soon. However, the basin\u2019s overall \u201chealth\u201d or favorability will improve into August as the ocean temperatures warm significantly and the impacts of Saharan Air Layers (SAL) and dust subside.

That\u2019s what we see today on the visible satellite imagery: a large plume of Saharan dust nearing the Caribbean with the characteristic milky hue. The clouds within the SAL are typically puffy cumulus but it is difficult to even produce a shower.

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