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This is post number 959: Day 166 of 2026. Day 15 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Morning! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season. We\u2019ll also keep track of the daily weather across the Lower 48, and sometimes around the world. No advertisements!
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
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Monday Headline: Tropical Disturbance over northern Mexico and South Texas may emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf [30% chance] \u2014> and develop a circulation enough to become a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Time frame \u2014> Wednesday
Regardless of any \u201cnamed storm\u201d development [NHC at 30%] the deep tropical moisture will inundate the coast and deliver \u201cboatloads\u201d \u2014 upwards of 4\u201d-6\u201d+ from Texas into the Mississippi River Valley over next 7-days.
Very soggy pattern!
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Nice way to show the low-level circulation of the \u201ctropical disturbance\u201d moving on land over Mexico to South Texas and then northward up the coast to Houston.
Uncertainty \u2014 track and intensity:
If the system drifts just east over the warm Gulf of Mexico (America) for even 12-24 hours, then significant tropical cyclone development would occur \u2014 from mid-range TS to even a hurricane (outlier event) \u2014> always a very fine line between a LOT happening and NOT much.
Even without a named or numbered system \u2014 tropical storm rainfall amounts will impact a large population and area!
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The deep layer tropical moisture plume is pulled northward \u2026 with the circulation of the tropical low embedded \u2026 and then it all shifts eastward beneath a strong Canadian trough.
The influence of the mid-latitude weather system (strong trough for mid-June) will provide upper-level jet stream energy to provide a \u201cbaroclinic kick\u201d to the tropical disturbance OVER land.
This unusual situation can occur when a surface low encounters the jet stream quadrant (right rear) and phases to increase convergence and ascent \u2014> intensification of the surface circulation.
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The red PWAT > 2\u201d and even some 3\u201d to 4\u201d areas embedded within the tropical low. Note how the system retains its circulation / coherence while within the frontal boundary draped along the Deep South / Gulf coast.
This is a recipe for HUGE rainfall totals with daytime heating + tropical moisture.
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
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The tropical moisture plume finally breaks down into the Gulf and southern U.S. when a chunk or westward extension of the Bermuda high moves westward to dominate the Gulf of Mexico with high pressure \u2026 but until then, 7-days of deep layer tropical moisture right into the Texas and the Deep South \u2014> rainfall
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A moderate Dust Layer (with Saharan Air) moving across the Main Development Region \u2014 and will reach the Caribbean in 3-4 days before decaying/wringing out with gravity and some convection/storms. Another SAL emerges in 5-6 days to repeat the pattern \u2014 typical for mid-to-late June.
The eastern Atlantic much cooler than normal < 26\u00b0C (green actual SST map) and blue anomaly (chilly) \u2014> signal for stability and difficulty sustaining tropical convection = no storm development and squelching of tropical waves.
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El Ni\u00f1o underway! Check out the very warm SST anomaly along the equatorial Pacific
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MEIv2 rises from -0.6 to +0.3 in most recent update \u2014> large shift to El Nino on monthly time scale.
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Saharan Air Layer highly apparent in the Satellite Imagery \u2014 dry and warm!
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Tropical Wave Analysis: n = 4 in Atlantic + 1 in Eastern Pacific = none developing.
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10-day ECMWF Ensemble Median (middle of distribution at each model grid point)
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Surface low ~1000 mb does develop right along the Texas coast \u2014 we\u2019ll see if it can emerge over the open ocean waters!
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Very strong mid-level trough maintains its grip on the Midwest and Great Lakes for the next 10-days. The flow out of the Northwest is straight from the Arctic = cool and dry \u2026 very intense trough for mid-June.
A Pacific origin trough swoops into the replace the Canadian vortex into next weekend.
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Next 15-days AIFS Ensemble Storm Tracks \u2014> aside from NW Gulf near coast of Texas \u2014> complete ghost town through end of June
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Western Pacific Typhoon \u2014 Slow but steady development of a system in 7-days
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Full physics model through 6-days, roughly 50% chance of storm formation
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AIFS-Single 06z through 10-days \u2014> typhoon
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AIFS-Ensemble Tracks through 6-days \u2014 higher chance and more westward track before recurving northward in 7-8 days
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
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Monday Headline: Tropical Disturbance over northern Mexico and South Texas may emerge over the very warm waters of the Gulf [30% chance] \u2014> and develop a circulation enough to become a tropical depression or tropical storm.
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