{ "number": 958, "headline": "June 12, 2026 Friday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Prepare for enormous rainfall next week with tropical moisture plume delivering boatloads", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-12", "published": "2026-06-12T16:00:32.409000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 958: Day 163 of 2026. Day 12 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Mid-Day! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season. We\u2019ll also keep track of the daily weather across the Lower 48, and sometimes around the world.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Help support this newsletter (nearing post 1,000!) \u2014> June 2026 Coupon

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Headlines for Friday

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Headline Maps for Friday

Drought Monitor released yesterday

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I wanted to match up the last 7-days of precipitation to the Drought Monitor map and show you that areas that need the rain are NOT getting it \u2026 mainly across the West and Florida + Georgia and the Carolinas. Also, the Lower Mississippi River Valley (Arkansas and Louisiana) could use a drink.

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Meanwhile \u2014 the Midwest and Great Lakes received boatloads with strong storms and downpours. Compared to normal last 7-days \u2014 3x to 5x!

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Convective Outlook \u2014 Severe Thunderstorms on Friday (SPC Day 1)

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Slight Risk for 65 million Americans

Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

HRRR simulated Radar through Saturday 3 AM ET

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Please monitor your local National Weather Service alerts and watch online streaming coverage + local television broadcasts

Boatloads of Rainfall on the Way

Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 9-days

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That\u2019s just a MASSIVE amount of rainfall coming to much of the East Central Lower 48 with widespread area of 2\u201d to 5\u201d+ in 9-days \u2026 talk about a wet pattern!

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human \u2014 Ryan) and not A.I.

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My favorite parameter \u2014 next 48-hours of HRRR Precipitable Water

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Moisture surge continues out of the Gulf into Texas with the tropical disturbance \u2014 you don\u2019t need a named storm for major impacts \u2014 especially with the rainfall coming over the next week or two.

Sharp cold front erases much of the heat and humidity across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to more seasonably mild temperatures

HRRR Radar Simulation Next 48-Hours \u2014> Sunday 8 AM ET

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Monday morning

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Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 06z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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The large scale flow across the Southern U.S. is dominated by a tropical moisture feed screaming through the Caribbean and turning northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Shortwave troughs embedded within a large scale vortex over southern Canada will draw up that moisture and provide the convergence and lift to more efficiently squeeze out rainfall by the boatloads!

ECMWF 06z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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Sharp Canadian trough briefly erases the tropical moisture across the Central and Eastern U.S. into later next week

Tropical > 2\u201d \u2014> boatloads of heavy precipitable water along the Gulf coast

ECMWF 06z | Precipitation + MSLP | Next 6-days

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Temperature Analysis | RTMA | 10:15 AM ET

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Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 10:15 AM ET

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Lower 48 was +2.9\u00b0F above normal

High Temperatures Next 8-Days \u2014> Saturday June 20th

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Heat wave \u2014 on more day for mid-Atlantic and Northeast with 90s and even some 100s in North Carolina and Virginia into tomorrow. Then Canadian cool front sweeps through the Lower 48 \u2026 60s and 70s for highs in the Midwest and Great Lakes for mid-June \u2014> also no one is complaining.

High Temperatures on Friday

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179 million Americans at least 90\u00b0F

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Mid-90s in NYC and Washington D.C.

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100s in North Carolina + Virginia + South Carolina

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Low Temperatures on Saturday

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High Temperatures on Saturday

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Still in the upper-90s to low-100s in coastal South Carolina and around Jacksonville, Florida

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High Temperatures on Sunday \u2014 Nice cool front!

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Temperatures 10-15\u00b0F below normal across the central U.S.

But heat builds across the coastal Pacific northwest including Seattle and Portland

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Weather Pattern

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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Very strong mid-level trough maintains its grip on the Midwest and Great Lakes for the next 10-days. The flow out of the Northwest is straight from the Arctic = cool and dry \u2026 very intense trough for mid-June.

A Pacific origin trough swoops into the replace the Canadian vortex into next weekend.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

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Much cooler than normal air blankets central Canada and dumps into the Lower 48

Week 1 \u2014> June 12 to June 18

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Week 2 \u2014> June 19 to June 25

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Below normal \u2014 blue \u2014> blankets Canadian border into the northern Lower 48

European Heat Dome Builds \u2014 into next week!

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Paris to 100\u00b0F

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Berlin into the upper-90s

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Always hot in Madrid

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Snapshot mid-day next Thursday \u2014 France bearing brunt of heat dome

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Quick Tropical Update in the Atlantic

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Tropical disturbance \u2014 10% chance of development (low!)

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Otherwise, the Atlantic is pleasant \u2014 quiet.

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And, the EPS ensembles through Day 15 show a \u201cghost town\u201d with no development likely

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Maybe some weak low pressure centers around 1006 mb near coast but unlikely to produce enough surface wind to justify a TD or TS

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Maximum 10% chance of a weak tropical wave forming a coherent low pressure in the Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf of Mexico) today

Eastern Pacific + Central American Gyre | Cyclonic Vorticity Next 4-days

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Western Pacific Typhoon \u2014 odds improving in 5-7 days for next major system

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Eastern Pacific has gone quiet \u2014 even with a couple tropical waves moving westward within the ITCZ/monsoon trough \u2014 they\u2019ll need to be watched in the Central Pacific and around the Dateline with the ongoing El Nino.

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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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Headlines for Friday

Beautiful weather across the central U.S. including the Midwest, Great Lakes with cold fronts lined up to keep the air pristine, cool and dry!

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