{ "number": 956, "headline": "June 10, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "First lemon drop of season (10% chance) for low pressure in Bay of Campeche", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-11", "published": "2026-06-11T02:25:45.984000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 956: Day 161 of 2026. Day 10 of Hurricane Season. Good Evening! Sorry, running very late with some weather data problems!

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Colorado State University (Dr. Klotzbach) updated their 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (PDF \u2014> Link). From their discussion:

The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by warm ENSO neutral conditions, but all signs point towards a robust El Ni\u00f1o in the next couple of months. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average, while they are below average in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We currently anticipate that the moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, likely driving well above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

Negatives: intensifying El Ni\u00f1o, cool SSTs, and above normal wind shear.

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And, that being said, Colorado State\u2019s updated forecast for 2026 is 11 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes \u2014 which should look familiar as that was our original forecast from April 7th \u2014 so no need to adjust anything! Once I get the updated MEIv2 (ENSO index) number for June, then I can re-run my statistical scheme.

But, based upon the \u201cchilly\u201d Atlantic basin, I would probably take the under.

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

Current SST Anomaly \u2014 UKMO OSTIA (0.05\u00b0 grid, 1996-2025 climatology)

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Broad tropical wave across NW Caribbean with some convection this evening

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Eastern Pacific + Central American Gyre | Cyclonic Vorticity Next 4-days

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Tropical Depression Cristina nearing the El Salvador coast. However, its circulation should be absorbed within a larger tropical wave into the Bay of Campeche into Friday and Saturday. NHC has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development. Anything that does come out of this \u201cgyre\u201d would be relatively weak but contribute to heavy rain within the deep layer moisture plume out of the Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Headlines for Tuesday

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks (12z)

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Into the weekend, only watching the southern Gulf of Mexico for low chance (<20%) of TD/TS activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America with input from remnants of Tropical Depression Cristina (03E).

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Flagship model: ECMWF HRES 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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The large scale flow with the Central American Gyre picks up the remnants of Cristina into the southern Gulf of Mexico with a northerly turn along the Texas coastline. The very strong Caribbean \u2014> Gulf of Mexico moisture plume resumes around the westward extension of the Bermuda High. We\u2019ll be watching this [typical] pattern for the next 2-weeks, at least. As a trough digs into the central Lower 48, the moisture plume will converge along the Gulf coast states \u2026 with heavy precipitation likely.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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Major trough out of Canada will sweep through the Lower 48 and collide with the Caribbean/Gulf moisture plume

Rainfall next 8-days from Blend of Models \u2014> boatloads!

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Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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Very strong mid-level trough swings into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late in week and then intensifies significantly into early next week \u2014> cooler pattern across Central Lower 48 into mid-June.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

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Week 1 \u2014> June 10 to June 16

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Week 2 \u2014> June 17 to June 23

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Below normal \u2014 blue in Texas and the Great Lakes

Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels | IR Channel 13 + Water Vapor

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Nothing organized across the Atlantic \u2014 just scattered showers.

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NASA Dust Forecast Next 10-days

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Saharan Air Layers might be significant \u2014 as usual \u2014 but they contain very little dust compared to previous years. Only minor plumes heading westward across the Main Development Region. Looking at the origin over North Africa \u2014>

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North Atlantic Tropics | Next 7-days | 10% chance

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Weak area of low pressure will form in the southern Bay of Campeche \u2014> but only 10% chance (so far) of becoming a TD/TS.

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3 Tropical Waves \u2014 none developing in the Atlantic, but as they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific, could trigger formation, as we saw with Boris and Cristina

My favorite parameter \u2014> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days

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Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2\u201d in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics \u2014> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014> IVT next 10-days from ECMWF AIFS

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Eastern Pacific is left with TD Cristina (03E) along Mexico/Central America within the gyre.

The deep layer moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. \u2014 and we will still be watching for any tropical cyclone development mainly in the southern Gulf in the coming days.

Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season

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Disorganized Tropical Depression Cristina right along the coast of El Salvador.

2026 Names \u2014> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida

Tropical Depression Cristina (03E) nearing landfall with 30 mph winds, main threat is heavy rain from slow moving, disorganized systems

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Western Pacific Basin \u2014 Typhoon Season \u2014 Some signs of life in 7-days

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Now > 50% chance of a Typhoon developing eventually out of a broad circulation near the Dateline \u2026 origin is a Mixed Rossby Gravity Wave

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Global Ocean Temperatures \u2014> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

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Tropical storms need at least 26\u00b0C SST to form and intensify \u2026 and hurricanes most often become major with 28\u00b0C SST (at least).

There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Ni\u00f1o. This recent 30-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline from UKMO OSTIA 0.05\u00b0C.

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Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 9)

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The Atlantic remains much cooler than normal across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.

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Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what\u2019s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5\u00b0N to 10\u00b0N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we\u2019ll look for areas of disturbed weather \u2014 which means persistent convection \u2014 and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.

The Bermuda High \u2014> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30\u00b0N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.

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Colorado State University (Dr. Klotzbach) updated their 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (PDF \u2014> Link ). From their discussion:

The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by warm ENSO neutral conditions, but all signs point towards a robust El Ni\u00f1o in the next couple of months. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average, while they are below average in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We currently anticipate that the moderate to strong El Ni\u00f1o will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, likely driving well above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

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