{ "number": 953, "headline": "June 7, 2026 Sunday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "New tropical depression off coast of Mexico and remnants could cross into southern Gulf", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-08", "published": "2026-06-08T01:50:57.759000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 953: Day 158 of 2026. Day 7 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Evening! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Tropical Weather Headlines for Sunday

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks (12z)

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Into next weekend, we\u2019re watching the southern Gulf of Mexico for low chance (~20%) of TS/Hurricane activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America with input from remnants of 1 Eastern Pacific tropical system (Invest 92E).

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One scenario: ECMWF HRES 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days

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Watch the large scale flow with the Central American Gyre pick up the remnants of an Eastern Pacific tropical system into the southern Gulf \u2026 and then the very strong Caribbean \u2014> Gulf of Mexico moisture plume resumes around the westward extension of the Bermuda High. We\u2019ll be watching this pattern for the next 2-weeks, at least, quite persisently strong.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter

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Moisture continues to surge due northward through the central Lower 48 into southern Canada. Heavy rain is primary threat from this very moist air mass with daytime heating.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

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Current Temperatures | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET

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Current Temperature Anomaly | RTMA | 8:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 was -0.2\u00b0F below normal

High Temperatures Next 8-Days \u2014> Tuesday June 16th.

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Cooler weather in the Northern Rockies and Midwest into next weekend as summertime heat builds eastward again \u2014 widespread 90s or even 100\u00b0F in the mid-Atlantic by Thurs/Friday.

Low Temperatures Monday Morning

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High Temperatures on Monday

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Only 71 million at least 90\u00b0F \u2026 and 252 million at least 80\u00b0F.

Upper-Level Height Anomaly | AIFS-Single Next 10-days

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Strong mid-level trough swings into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late in week and then intensifies \u2014 cooler pattern for sure across Central Lower 48 into mid-June.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly next 15-days

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Week 1 \u2014> June 7 to June 13

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Week 2 \u2014> June 14 to June 20

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HRRR Radar Simulation Next 48-Hours \u2014> Tuesday 2 PM ET

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Weather Pattern into Monday Morning

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Weather Pattern on Monday

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours \u2014> Wednesday Evening

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Blend of Models \u2014> Precipitation Next 10-days

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Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels | IR Channel 13 + Water Vapor

Entire basin is very quiet with any tropical waves showing limited convection.

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Very little convection in the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 or elsewhere in the Atlantic basin.

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North Atlantic Tropics | Quiet Next 7-days

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5 Tropical Waves \u2014 none developing in the Atlantic, but as they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific, could trigger formation, as we see with 2 systems in the EPAC

My favorite parameter \u2014> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days

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Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2\u201d in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics \u2014> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014> IVT next 12-days from ECMWF AIFS

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Eastern Pacific is busy with TD 02E and Invest 92E along Mexico/Central America within the gyre. However, their proximity to land will limit development.

The deep layer moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. \u2014 and we will still be watching for any tropical cyclone development in the southern Gulf in the 6-8 days time frame.

Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season

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Amanda has become a remnant low as convection as poofed.

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Tropical Depression 02E (next name is Boris)

May make landfall (loosely defined center) by mid-day on Monday

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2026 Names \u2014> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida

Main threat is heavy rain \u2014> Total Precipitation Next 6-days

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Western Pacific Basin \u2014 Typhoon Season \u2014 Quiet next 7-days

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Global Ocean Temperatures \u2014> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

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Tropical storms need at least 26\u00b0C SST to form and intensify \u2026 and hurricanes most often become major with 28\u00b0C SST (at least).

There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Ni\u00f1o. The recent 20-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline.

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Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 8 00z)

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The Atlantic remains cooler than past 2-decades across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.

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Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what\u2019s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5\u00b0N to 10\u00b0N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we\u2019ll look for areas of disturbed weather \u2014 which means persistent convection \u2014 and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.

The Bermuda High \u2014> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30\u00b0N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.

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Atlantic : Medium-range (5-7 days) high uncertainty in southern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) with system crossing Central America within deep layer moisture plume (Central American Gyre Circulation) \u2026 much lower probability of a tropical storm compared to Friday ( 50% \u2014> 20% ) from ECMWF Ensembles

Eastern Pacific Amanda is a remnant low. Tropical Depression (02E) forecast to become Tropical Storm Boris briefly + another system (90%) also along the coast of Central America. Proximity to land will limit intensification and organization with heavy rain as the primary threat.

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