June 3, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Amanda forms & Watching Caribbean and Gulf into mid-June
June 2026 was the 18th-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 70.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+1.2°F).
June 2026 was the 32nd-wettest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Storm Amanda (01E) in the Eastern Pacific formed early Wednesday, but it remains disorganized with strong wind shear displacing the strongest convection to the west of low level center.
Basin Headlines for Tuesday
Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and then meander well away from land. 2 more storms on the way near Mexico and Central America coast.
Atlantic: Weak, disorganized system in the Gulf this week, with long-range (8-10 days, at least) eyeballs on whatever happens in the Eastern Pacific to move over Central America, and enter the Gulf of Mexico. —> Central American Gyre Circulation. Probability of a TS/Hurricane is better than 50% through 15-days.
Western Pacific: no activity expected in next 5-7 days
Gulf of Mexico convection — weak disorganized in the coming days, but still could briefly form a circulation or low pressure center. ECMWF 18z shows a mess of convection, and heavy rainfall that moves into the Gulf coast roughly centered over Louisiana Fri/Sat.
ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks — next 3-days: in the Gulf of Mexico: weak ~1005 mb range lows, but could be enough to become a depression if the wind shear relaxes long enough and convection persists over a coherent circulation center.
50-ensembles or realizations of the next 15-day forecast of sea level pressure (L’s) tracked … and then plotted on top of each other.
Down the road, eyes on the Gulf of Mexico for low/medium chance of TS/Hurricane activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America that will spawn multiple Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones.
Maybe one of those crosses in the Gulf — or some remnants. June 15th (+12 days) signal has really ramped up for a TS/Hurricane in the Gulf > 50% with many major intensity members.
One scenario: ECMWF HRES 12z —> Integrated Vapor Transport
Watch the large scale flow with the Central American Gyre pick up the remnants of an Eastern Pacific tropical storm into the Gulf
Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 3)
The Atlantic remains cooler than past 2-decades across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.
SST Anomaly Forecast 15-days —> June 18th —> basin remains cool
Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels
Infrared (Channel 13) colorized —> showers and thunderstorms
Still completely clear Caribbean — only convection in the Gulf of Mexico associated with a stalled frontal boundary attached to a storm/trough off the Southeast coast in the Atlantic
Water Vapor (Mid-Level Ch. 9) - troughs + areas of dry air
A trough (yellow+orange) from Caribbean into the eastern Atlantic — closed for business with nary a cloud. Tropical wave from yesterday fizzled out.
ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days
Not seeing anything organized across the Atlantic including the Gulf and Caribbean. However, into mid-June, surge of moisture and more favorable background conditions with MJO passing through Central America will dial up activity that could cross into the Gulf of Mexico.
NASA GEOS5 (00z) —> African dust plume forecast next 10-days
Saharan Air Layer and African dust activity will decrease after this plume pushes through the Caribbean into the Gulf — while mixing/raining out.
Then, rather quiet for early June across the Eastern Atlantic / African coast for dust.
North Atlantic Tropics | Quiet Next 7-days
3 Tropical Waves — not developing in the Atlantic, but they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific and have a chance there, too.
My favorite parameter —> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days
Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2” in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics —> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)
Integrated Vapor Transport —> IVT next 12-days from ECMWF AIFS
Eastern Pacific is busy with 3 systems. A moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. by mid-June, and we will watch for any tropical cyclone development. Way down the road — 8-10 days.
Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season | Amanda O1E
Another disturbance popped upon the 7-day NHC outlook — now 2 at 50%
Tropical Storm Amanda is way out in the Pacific … mixing some fish
2026 Names —> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida
Tropical Storm Amanda may still reach 50-60 knots — outside chance of becoming a hurricane if the shear relaxes. The ocean (SST) is plenty warm.
HAFS-A | 850 mb Winds —> coherent circulation for next 5-days+
HAFS-A Mesoscale Nest — Amanda (01E) tries to leave the ITCZ/monsoon trough but then heads WSW again
ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days
Relative Vorticity (Cyclonic) — interesting twin / elongated vorticity along Mexico + Central America —> 2 named storms for the price of one?
ECMWF EPS | Next 15-days for Eastern Pacific
Western Pacific Basin — Typhoon Season — Quiet next 7-days
Global Ocean Temperatures —> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Tropical storms need at least 26°C SST to form and intensify … and hurricanes most often become major with 28°C SST (at least).
There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Niño. The recent 20-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline.
Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what’s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.
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For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output
ECMWF EPS full-physics ensembles … 50 perturbed members + control/HRES
ECMWF AIFS-Ensemble (data driven) … another 50 members + control
ECMWF AIFS-Single … a special deterministic system that has exceptional skill
NOAA GEFSv12 Ensembles … 30 perturbed members + control
NOAA GFSv16 … 13-km high resolution global deterministic
UK Met Office MOGREPS lagged ensembles … global 14-km 72-members per day
Environment Canada ensembles + Germany ICON + Australia BOM Unified Model
New Google WeatherNext 1000-member ensemble system (!) more on that in future post
My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5°N to 10°N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we’ll look for areas of disturbed weather — which means persistent convection — and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.
The Bermuda High —> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30°N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.
- Milepost
- 950 · laid 2026-06-04T01:59:02.265000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/june-3-2026-wednesday-tropical-update
- Digest
- ff1531347d13ac73967929fbf0161ff161e272fd92630cbece2af7a155e08d93
- Machine
- JSON