{ "number": 950, "headline": "June 3, 2026 Wednesday Tropical Update", "standfirst": "Tropical Storm Amanda forms & Watching Caribbean and Gulf into mid-June", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04T01:59:02.265000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 950: Day 154 of 2026. Day 3 of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Good Evening! Welcome to all new and returning subscribers for another Atlantic hurricane season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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Tropical Storm Amanda (01E) in the Eastern Pacific formed early Wednesday, but it remains disorganized with strong wind shear displacing the strongest convection to the west of low level center.

Basin Headlines for Tuesday

Gulf of Mexico convection \u2014 weak disorganized in the coming days, but still could briefly form a circulation or low pressure center. ECMWF 18z shows a mess of convection, and heavy rainfall that moves into the Gulf coast roughly centered over Louisiana Fri/Sat.

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Cyclone Tracks \u2014 next 3-days: in the Gulf of Mexico: weak ~1005 mb range lows, but could be enough to become a depression if the wind shear relaxes long enough and convection persists over a coherent circulation center.

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50-ensembles or realizations of the next 15-day forecast of sea level pressure (L\u2019s) tracked \u2026 and then plotted on top of each other.

Down the road, eyes on the Gulf of Mexico for low/medium chance of TS/Hurricane activity out of a large circulation/ gyre centered over Mexico + Central America that will spawn multiple Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones.

Maybe one of those crosses in the Gulf \u2014 or some remnants. June 15th (+12 days) signal has really ramped up for a TS/Hurricane in the Gulf > 50% with many major intensity members.

One scenario: ECMWF HRES 12z \u2014> Integrated Vapor Transport

Watch the large scale flow with the Central American Gyre pick up the remnants of an Eastern Pacific tropical storm into the Gulf

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Atlantic Ocean Temperatures | SST Analysis (June 3)

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The Atlantic remains cooler than past 2-decades across the Main Development Region [MDR] from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean) to the Canary Islands and coast of Africa. The North Atlantic off the East Coast and into the mid-latitudes is also quite cool.

SST Anomaly Forecast 15-days \u2014> June 18th \u2014> basin remains cool

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Atlantic Basin Satellite Channels

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Infrared (Channel 13) colorized \u2014> showers and thunderstorms

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Still completely clear Caribbean \u2014 only convection in the Gulf of Mexico associated with a stalled frontal boundary attached to a storm/trough off the Southeast coast in the Atlantic

Water Vapor (Mid-Level Ch. 9) - troughs + areas of dry air

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A trough (yellow+orange) from Caribbean into the eastern Atlantic \u2014 closed for business with nary a cloud. Tropical wave from yesterday fizzled out.

ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

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Not seeing anything organized across the Atlantic including the Gulf and Caribbean. However, into mid-June, surge of moisture and more favorable background conditions with MJO passing through Central America will dial up activity that could cross into the Gulf of Mexico.

NASA GEOS5 (00z) \u2014> African dust plume forecast next 10-days

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Saharan Air Layer and African dust activity will decrease after this plume pushes through the Caribbean into the Gulf \u2014 while mixing/raining out.

Then, rather quiet for early June across the Eastern Atlantic / African coast for dust.

North Atlantic Tropics | Quiet Next 7-days

3 Tropical Waves \u2014 not developing in the Atlantic, but they eventually reach the Eastern Pacific and have a chance there, too.

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My favorite parameter \u2014> Precipitable Water (PWAT) next 6-days

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Tropical storms and hurricanes are bundles of high moisture air > 2\u201d in the column (or more) so we look for areas of concentrated high PWAT air in the tropics \u2014> and we also can view frontal boundaries or dry air input from the middle-latitudes into the subtropics or tropics + Saharan Air Layers (dry)

Integrated Vapor Transport \u2014> IVT next 12-days from ECMWF AIFS

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Eastern Pacific is busy with 3 systems. A moisture plume surges through the Caribbean into the Gulf and then northward through eastern U.S. by mid-June, and we will watch for any tropical cyclone development. Way down the road \u2014 8-10 days.

Eastern Pacific Tropics | 2026 Season | Amanda O1E

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Another disturbance popped upon the 7-day NHC outlook \u2014 now 2 at 50%

Tropical Storm Amanda is way out in the Pacific \u2026 mixing some fish

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2026 Names \u2014> Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida

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Tropical Storm Amanda may still reach 50-60 knots \u2014 outside chance of becoming a hurricane if the shear relaxes. The ocean (SST) is plenty warm.

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HAFS-A | 850 mb Winds \u2014> coherent circulation for next 5-days+

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HAFS-A Mesoscale Nest \u2014 Amanda (01E) tries to leave the ITCZ/monsoon trough but then heads WSW again

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ECMWF Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Relative Vorticity (Cyclonic) \u2014 interesting twin / elongated vorticity along Mexico + Central America \u2014> 2 named storms for the price of one?

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ECMWF EPS | Next 15-days for Eastern Pacific

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Western Pacific Basin \u2014 Typhoon Season \u2014 Quiet next 7-days

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Global Ocean Temperatures \u2014> Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

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Tropical storms need at least 26\u00b0C SST to form and intensify \u2026 and hurricanes most often become major with 28\u00b0C SST (at least).

There are still rather cool (relative) areas in the Western Pacific and North Atlantic compared to the growing warmth along the Equator and off the western coast of Mexico with the oncoming El Ni\u00f1o. The recent 20-year climatology highlights much better than an older 1991-2020 baseline.

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Thank you for reaching the end of this post! Hopefully you enjoyed the tour of the global tropics and what\u2019s coming in the weeks/months ahead in the tropics here on Weather Trader on Substack.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

For 2026 Hurricane Season: Every 6 or 12 hours, we get an update including these model output

My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)

From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)

NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

More details in Thursday, May 21, 2026 Tropical Update

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The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropics along 5\u00b0N to 10\u00b0N is where moist air can ascend and form thunderstorms or like a convective pot boiling over = convection. In the coming weeks, especially into late June, we\u2019ll look for areas of disturbed weather \u2014 which means persistent convection \u2014 and potential formation of low pressure swirls along the ITCZ with tropical waves, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (America) with decaying frontal boundaries, and other pathways like tropical transition or subtropical cut-off lows. Lots of options/ways to form a tropical storm in the Atlantic in any given season.

The Bermuda High \u2014> Azores High in the subtropics usually keeps things quiet in the latitude around 30\u00b0N and suppresses the ITCZ to the south in late May into June. On the periphery of the Bermuda High, moisture plumes out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then Texas + Southeast.

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Tropical Storm Amanda (01E) in the Eastern Pacific formed early Wednesday, but it remains disorganized with strong wind shear displacing the strongest convection to the west of low level center.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and then meander well away from land. 2 more storms on the way near Mexico and Central America coast.

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