Drought Monitor Update | Thursday

Rockies / Western U.S. + Southeast in drought conditions, some places Extreme+

But California has only light yellow (dry conditions) with the Great Lakes completely drought free. Texas also looking mostly good.

I’d especially flag Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas as the states with urgent need to showers and storms

Pattern Shifted — Boatloads of Rainfall Over the Past 7-days

Compared to climatology (%) shows the very welcome rain for some drought relief.

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

A lot of red (> 2” PWAT) showing up out of the Gulf of Mexico = deep tropical moisture plume accumulates over the next 6-days+

Troughs on either side of the Omega block = dry Canadian or Arctic air

Omega Block Pattern | Next 6-days of troughs and ridges

The blocking pattern ridge (Omega block) is centered over Hudson Bay Canada with the Northeast really unlucky again with persistent troughing. The Western U.S. recovers from a cut-off low with a warming trend next week.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days — into Monday Afternoon

MUCH Cooler than normal air across the Northeast … comfortable to start June in NYC and D.C with mainly mid-70s.

Precipitation Next 10-days | Blend of Models (v5.0)

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Saturday, June 6th

Into early June, the Lower 48 warms up slowly but surely with almost 300 million Americans at least 80°F by Saturday, June 6th

ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 28 - June 4

Northeast well below normal into early June, but the backdoor cold fronts and troughs will eventually take a break.

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | June 4 - June 10

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

The Omega block pattern is taking advantage of the moisture coming out of the Caribbean and Gulf — pull it northward into Canada to help sustain the ridge.

Potential for a weak Eastern Pacific tropical storm along 120°W.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

Lower 48 was 1.2°F above normal balancing cool evening in California with 80s and 90s in the northern Rockies and Dakotas.

Low Temperatures Friday Morning

40s for the Great Lakes and Northeast

High Temperatures on Friday

Only 30 million at least 90°F … 60s and 70s in Northeast

High Temperatures on Saturday

Cooler in New England in the 50s and 60s into NYC

High Temperatures on Sunday

Comfortable across the eastern U.S. with mainly 70s

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Friday Morning

Interesting “back door” cold front moving SW into the Tennessee River Valley and Southeast with dry air behind it … battling the warm, Gulf of Mexico moisture to the south

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday 2 PM ET

Showers will be retorgrading from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Plains — welcome rain courtesy of the eastern trough of the “Omega Block”

A little Quebec clipper system arrives on Friday … swirls into Saturday with blustery conditions with chilly temperatures. Could be some snow in the highest elevations Saturday morning

HRRR Precipitable Water — high resolution version of my favorite parameter

Weather on Friday

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Evening

7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | Through next Thursday Evening

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

Omega block breaks down after 4-5 days, and then immediate rebuilds/repeats through first week of June.

Europe Upper-Level Pattern

Western Europe ridge breaks down completely by Monday — and much cooler air arrives from the Atlantic and Iceland/Greenland for Europe.

Paris near 90°F through Saturday, and then chilly in the 60s the following weekend

Still quite warm in London — 80°F on Saturday, and then back to “June gloom”

Berlin really didn’t see the “heat wave” instead 70s. Comfortable.

15-day Ensemble Median Precipitation | ECMWF 12z

Atlantic Dust | NASA GEOS-5 next 10-days

Watching Tropical Storm Jangmi (06W)

Full tropical update tomorrow (Friday)

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