{ "number": 945, "headline": "May 28, 2026 Thursday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Northeast blustery this weekend as Omega block dominates weather pattern across North America", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-05-29", "published": "2026-05-29T01:16:06.779000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 945: Good Evening! Day 149 of 2026. 3 more days until start of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Special new/annual upgrade coupon (33% off) through June 1st.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported newsletter (no ads or sponsors). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. All content is original (from Ryan) not A.I.

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Drought Monitor Update | Thursday

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Rockies / Western U.S. + Southeast in drought conditions, some places Extreme+

But California has only light yellow (dry conditions) with the Great Lakes completely drought free. Texas also looking mostly good.

I\u2019d especially flag Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas as the states with urgent need to showers and storms

Pattern Shifted \u2014 Boatloads of Rainfall Over the Past 7-days

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Compared to climatology (%) shows the very welcome rain for some drought relief.

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ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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A lot of red (> 2\u201d PWAT) showing up out of the Gulf of Mexico = deep tropical moisture plume accumulates over the next 6-days+

Troughs on either side of the Omega block = dry Canadian or Arctic air

Omega Block Pattern | Next 6-days of troughs and ridges

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The blocking pattern ridge (Omega block) is centered over Hudson Bay Canada with the Northeast really unlucky again with persistent troughing. The Western U.S. recovers from a cut-off low with a warming trend next week.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014 into Monday Afternoon

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MUCH Cooler than normal air across the Northeast \u2026 comfortable to start June in NYC and D.C with mainly mid-70s.

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Precipitation Next 10-days | Blend of Models (v5.0)

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Consistent southerly / moist flow = more rainfall (welcome) for central U.S. and Southeast

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Saturday, June 6th

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Into early June, the Lower 48 warms up slowly but surely with almost 300 million Americans at least 80\u00b0F by Saturday, June 6th

ECMWF 18z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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The Omega block warms up Canada finally after a very long winter \u2026 and the moisture / clouds from Texas into Southeast \u2014> keep things cooler. The whole pattern repeats into the 2nd Week of June.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 28 - June 4

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Northeast well below normal into early June, but the backdoor cold fronts and troughs will eventually take a break.

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | June 4 - June 10

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Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

The Omega block pattern is taking advantage of the moisture coming out of the Caribbean and Gulf \u2014 pull it northward into Canada to help sustain the ridge.

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Potential for a weak Eastern Pacific tropical storm along 120\u00b0W.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 1.2\u00b0F above normal balancing cool evening in California with 80s and 90s in the northern Rockies and Dakotas.

Low Temperatures Friday Morning

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40s for the Great Lakes and Northeast

High Temperatures on Friday

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Only 30 million at least 90\u00b0F \u2026 60s and 70s in Northeast

High Temperatures on Saturday

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Cooler in New England in the 50s and 60s into NYC

High Temperatures on Sunday

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Comfortable across the eastern U.S. with mainly 70s

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Friday Morning

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Interesting \u201cback door\u201d cold front moving SW into the Tennessee River Valley and Southeast with dry air behind it \u2026 battling the warm, Gulf of Mexico moisture to the south

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday 2 PM ET

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Showers will be retorgrading from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Plains \u2014 welcome rain courtesy of the eastern trough of the \u201cOmega Block\u201d

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A little Quebec clipper system arrives on Friday \u2026 swirls into Saturday with blustery conditions with chilly temperatures. Could be some snow in the highest elevations Saturday morning

HRRR Precipitable Water \u2014 high resolution version of my favorite parameter

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Weather on Friday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Evening

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7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | Through next Thursday Evening

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Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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Omega block breaks down after 4-5 days, and then immediate rebuilds/repeats through first week of June.

Europe Upper-Level Pattern

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Western Europe ridge breaks down completely by Monday \u2014 and much cooler air arrives from the Atlantic and Iceland/Greenland for Europe.

Paris near 90\u00b0F through Saturday, and then chilly in the 60s the following weekend

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Still quite warm in London \u2014 80\u00b0F on Saturday, and then back to \u201cJune gloom\u201d

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Berlin really didn\u2019t see the \u201cheat wave\u201d instead 70s. Comfortable.

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15-day Ensemble Median Precipitation | ECMWF 12z

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Atlantic Dust | NASA GEOS-5 next 10-days

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Watching Tropical Storm Jangmi (06W)

Full tropical update tomorrow (Friday)

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April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Rockies / Western U.S. + Southeast in drought conditions, some places Extreme+

But California has only light yellow (dry conditions) with the Great Lakes completely drought free. Texas also looking mostly good.

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