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Southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico bringing boatloads of moisture into Texas, and along a frontal boundary extending into the Ohio River Valley. This pattern will persist into early June!

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days — into next Tuesday morning

• Heat wave breaks on Wednesday behind a strong cold front, and much cooler air continues into early next week

• Extensive cold pool across the Western U.S. shifts eastward — a lot of blue and green across the Lower 48 into Memorial Day Weekend.

• Warmth builds across the West into the northern Rockies.

• Clouds and rain out of the Gulf will keep the southern U.S. muggy

Wednesday Morning Top Headline

Precipitation Next 10-days | Blend of Models (v5.0)

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Thursday, May 28th

Cooler air behind a strong cold front sweeps eastward into Friday, and then slow moderation/heating again into weekend and Memorial Day. Not seeing widespread 90s into late-May and early June, but instead 80s!

ECMWF 06z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

Notable weather systems: just blobs of moisture along frontal boundaries

Quite a bit of moisture —> rainfall without the presence of a strong low-pressure (typical for late-May) = pop-up or convective storms as we head through late Spring.

Memorial Day Afternoon —> soggy across Southern U.S.

Huge moisture surge from Gulf of Mexico to Ohio River Valley

Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s — not 90s!

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean

Western warmth rebuilds and then moves into Canada … but cooler weather on the periphery due to moisture flow out of tropics

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 20- May 26

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 27 - June 2

ECMWF 06z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

I see a persistent pattern shaping up for the south from Texas into the Southeast with strong southerly flow around the Bermuda / subtropical high / ridge anchored off the Eastern U.S.

—> boatloads of moisture/rainfall for Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and hopefully more in the Central Plains to dent the ongoing drought conditions.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:15 AM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:15 AM ET

Lower 48 was -2.0°F BELOW normal on balance between exceptional chill behind cold front vs. heat wave centered on the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, for now.

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Thursday Morning

Rain — could be heavy in Texas — along the cold front

Radar Simulation (HRRR) next 18-hours

HRRR 06z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday 2 AM ET

Weather on Thursday — heavy rain threat from Kansas City to Houston

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Afternoon

7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | Through next Wed morning

Boatloads of rainfall for Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

Ongoing Eastern U.S. heat dome / ridge breaks down today.

However, a new persistent blocking pattern sets up with the ridge axis centered along Hudson Bay and Ontario with troughs on either side … this would keep the Western U.S. and Northeast cooler than normal, and allow the moisture flow out of the Gulf to sustain the ridge on the backside

High Temperatures Today | Wednesday

Still well into the 90s for NYC, Washington D.C.

But much cooler — 60s across the Midwest and Plains

Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

High Temperatures on Thursday —> Much cooler!

Wow, only 60s and lower 70s instead of mid-90s. Perfect!

Memorial Day Weekend High Temperatures —> Saturday

Memorial Day Weekend High Temperatures —> Sunday

Memorial Day Weekend High Temperatures —> Monday

15-day Ensemble Median Precipitation | ECMWF 00z

What about the 90th percentile? Potential for a LOT more rainfall is possible.

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Tropical Update Post from Tuesday

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.