{ "number": 940, "headline": "May 20, 2026 Wednesday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "One more day of extreme heat across Mid-Atlantic and Northeast before cold front", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-05-20", "published": "2026-05-20T13:35:38.692000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 940: Good Morning! Day 140 of 2026. 10 more days until start of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Posted yesterday evening on new A.I. (data driven) tools from ECMWF, and a summary of what\u2019s available to forecasters. Special new/annual upgrade coupon (33% off) through June 1st.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Tip: This newsletter is best viewed in the Substack App as email may clip contents

Good morning! Sunshine greeting the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic into southern New England \u2014> hot day ahead!

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Southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico bringing boatloads of moisture into Texas, and along a frontal boundary extending into the Ohio River Valley. This pattern will persist into early June!

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Mid-Level Water Vapor (GOES East)

Cold Front is on the way! Temperatures will cool from the 90s today to 60s and 70s tomorrow. Temperatures next 48-hours (HRRR 06z)

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014 into next Tuesday morning

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Wednesday Morning Top Headline

Boatloads of rainfall expected through next 10-days as a conveyor belt of moisture out the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico flows into Texas, the lower Mississippi River Valley, and across the Southeast. This persistent wet pattern is very good news!

Precipitation Next 10-days | Blend of Models (v5.0)

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Over next 10-days, upwards of 6-8\u201d of rain across eastern Texas with a wet eastern U.S. from the Plains into the Great Lakes, and Ohio River Valley

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Thursday, May 28th

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Cooler air behind a strong cold front sweeps eastward into Friday, and then slow moderation/heating again into weekend and Memorial Day. Not seeing widespread 90s into late-May and early June, but instead 80s!

ECMWF 06z | Precipitation Type + MSLP | Next 6-days

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Notable weather systems: just blobs of moisture along frontal boundaries

Quite a bit of moisture \u2014> rainfall without the presence of a strong low-pressure (typical for late-May) = pop-up or convective storms as we head through late Spring.

Memorial Day Afternoon \u2014> soggy across Southern U.S.

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Huge moisture surge from Gulf of Mexico to Ohio River Valley

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Temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s \u2014 not 90s!

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ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean

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Western warmth rebuilds and then moves into Canada \u2026 but cooler weather on the periphery due to moisture flow out of tropics

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 20- May 26

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 27 - June 2

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ECMWF 06z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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Boatloads of moisture surging out of the Gulf \u2014 welcome to summer!

Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-days

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I see a persistent pattern shaping up for the south from Texas into the Southeast with strong southerly flow around the Bermuda / subtropical high / ridge anchored off the Eastern U.S.

\u2014> boatloads of moisture/rainfall for Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and hopefully more in the Central Plains to dent the ongoing drought conditions.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:15 AM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:15 AM ET

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Lower 48 was -2.0\u00b0F BELOW normal on balance between exceptional chill behind cold front vs. heat wave centered on the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, for now.

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Thursday Morning

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Rain \u2014 could be heavy in Texas \u2014 along the cold front

Radar Simulation (HRRR) next 18-hours

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HRRR 06z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday 2 AM ET

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Weather on Thursday \u2014 heavy rain threat from Kansas City to Houston

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Afternoon

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7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | Through next Wed morning

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Boatloads of rainfall for Texas into the Lower Mississippi River Valley

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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Ongoing Eastern U.S. heat dome / ridge breaks down today.

However, a new persistent blocking pattern sets up with the ridge axis centered along Hudson Bay and Ontario with troughs on either side \u2026 this would keep the Western U.S. and Northeast cooler than normal, and allow the moisture flow out of the Gulf to sustain the ridge on the backside

High Temperatures Today | Wednesday

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Still well into the 90s for NYC, Washington D.C.

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But much cooler \u2014 60s across the Midwest and Plains

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Low Temperatures Thursday Morning

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High Temperatures on Thursday \u2014> Much cooler!

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Wow, only 60s and lower 70s instead of mid-90s. Perfect!

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Memorial Day Weekend High Temperatures \u2014> Saturday

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Memorial Day Weekend High Temperatures \u2014> Sunday

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Memorial Day Weekend High Temperatures \u2014> Monday

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15-day Ensemble Median Precipitation | ECMWF 00z

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What about the 90th percentile? Potential for a LOT more rainfall is possible.

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Tropical Update Post from Tuesday

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico bringing boatloads of moisture into Texas, and along a frontal boundary extending into the Ohio River Valley. This pattern will persist into early June!

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