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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days: Warmer this weekend — but first significant chill from Canadian cool pool behind rather strong cold front for mid-May. Yet another “cool pool” dips into the western U.S. and northern Rockies, then Plains for early next week —> Pattern Flip!

Headline for Tuesday Evening

Ridge moves eastward —> building heat more like summer with 90s in the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Sun/Mon

Rain and storms return to Texas and the central Plains early next week.

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Thursday, May 21st

Next few days — cooler than normal behind the cold front with 70s dipping into the Southeast. However, by this weekend, widespread 80s and 90s. Another cool front sweeps through later next week — keeping any long-lasting “heat dome” formation at bay.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 5-days

Notable weather systems:

Pacific Northwest: strong low pressure system intensifies into Alberta and Saskatchewan deepening to 982 mb with some snowfall on the north side.

Clipper system moves through Midwest and Great Lakes next 24-36-hours

Next storm system gathers in the Plains early next week with southerly flow and moisture plume — more late spring like air mass.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

The western U.S. heat finally pushes into the Mid-Atlantic by Days 5-8 and then erodes again as Canadian continental “cool pool” arrives with northwesterly flow.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 12 - May 18

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 19 - May 25

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

• Canadian cold front blasts through the Great Lakes into the Southeast and even Florida into Friday.

• Then, major return flow of moisture out of the subtropical Pacific + Gulf of Mexico into the weekend up/around the Eastern U.S. ridge.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

Lower 48 was 5.2°F ABOVE normal

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Wednesday Morning

Low pressure / Clipper system in the Great Lakes, and some rain across Florida with a weak storm system in the Gulf of Mexico.

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday 2 PM ET

Clipper system moves into Northeast with cool rain showers! More rain for Florida (welcome news) from weak frontal wave. Pacific Northwest showers … potential for a severe thunderstorm in Montana (slight risk)

Weather on Wednesday

Sprawling cold front across the central and eastern U.S. — significant for mid-May.

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning

Only 30,000 below freezing in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Maine.

High Temperatures Wednesday

26 million at least 90°F … only in the 50s in Michigan.

40s and 50s in Michigan — chilly! Lower 70s in NYC … so comfortable

Heat continues in Phoenix > 100°F

High Temperatures on Thursday

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Evening

7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | Through next Tuesday

14-day Ensemble Median Precipitation | ECMWF 12z

Tropical Update

Only one tropical wave in the central MDR — no development expected

African dust plume forecast next 10-days

North Atlantic tropics — precipitable water next 6-days = dead quiet / no surprise as the ITCZ is still suppressed southward near the Equator in the Atlantic.

Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity expected in the next 6-days

Eastern Pacific Tropics — quiet — waiting on tropical waves to cross from the North Atlantic toward end of the month to get season started — which should be an active season with developing Super El Niño. Official start of EPAC season is May 15th.

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.