{ "number": 935, "headline": "May 12, 2026 Tuesday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Minor weather systems for next week with summer like heat building across Eastern US", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-05-13", "published": "2026-05-13T02:18:10.662000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 935: Good Evening! Day 132 of 2026. 18 more days until start of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Tip: If this newsletter is truncated in an email, readers can click on \"View entire message,\" and you'll be able to view the entire post in their email app.

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days: Warmer this weekend \u2014 but first significant chill from Canadian cool pool behind rather strong cold front for mid-May. Yet another \u201ccool pool\u201d dips into the western U.S. and northern Rockies, then Plains for early next week \u2014> Pattern Flip!

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Headline for Tuesday Evening

Ridge moves eastward \u2014> building heat more like summer with 90s in the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Sun/Mon

Rain and storms return to Texas and the central Plains early next week.

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Thursday, May 21st

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Next few days \u2014 cooler than normal behind the cold front with 70s dipping into the Southeast. However, by this weekend, widespread 80s and 90s. Another cool front sweeps through later next week \u2014 keeping any long-lasting \u201cheat dome\u201d formation at bay.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 5-days

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Notable weather systems:

Pacific Northwest: strong low pressure system intensifies into Alberta and Saskatchewan deepening to 982 mb with some snowfall on the north side.

Clipper system moves through Midwest and Great Lakes next 24-36-hours

Next storm system gathers in the Plains early next week with southerly flow and moisture plume \u2014 more late spring like air mass.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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The western U.S. heat finally pushes into the Mid-Atlantic by Days 5-8 and then erodes again as Canadian continental \u201ccool pool\u201d arrives with northwesterly flow.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 12 - May 18

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Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 19 - May 25

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ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 9:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 was 5.2\u00b0F ABOVE normal

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Wednesday Morning

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Low pressure / Clipper system in the Great Lakes, and some rain across Florida with a weak storm system in the Gulf of Mexico.

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday 2 PM ET

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Clipper system moves into Northeast with cool rain showers! More rain for Florida (welcome news) from weak frontal wave. Pacific Northwest showers \u2026 potential for a severe thunderstorm in Montana (slight risk)

Weather on Wednesday

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Sprawling cold front across the central and eastern U.S. \u2014 significant for mid-May.

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning

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Only 30,000 below freezing in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Maine.

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High Temperatures Wednesday

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26 million at least 90\u00b0F \u2026 only in the 50s in Michigan.

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40s and 50s in Michigan \u2014 chilly! Lower 70s in NYC \u2026 so comfortable

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Heat continues in Phoenix > 100\u00b0F

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High Temperatures on Thursday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Evening

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7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | Through next Tuesday

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14-day Ensemble Median Precipitation | ECMWF 12z

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Tropical Update

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Only one tropical wave in the central MDR \u2014 no development expected

African dust plume forecast next 10-days

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North Atlantic tropics \u2014 precipitable water next 6-days = dead quiet / no surprise as the ITCZ is still suppressed southward near the Equator in the Atlantic.

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Western Pacific: No tropical storm activity expected in the next 6-days

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Eastern Pacific Tropics \u2014 quiet \u2014 waiting on tropical waves to cross from the North Atlantic toward end of the month to get season started \u2014 which should be an active season with developing Super El Ni\u00f1o. Official start of EPAC season is May 15th.

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Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Tip: If this newsletter is truncated in an email, readers can click on "View entire message," and you'll be able to view the entire post in their email app.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days: Warmer this weekend \u2014 but first significant chill from Canadian cool pool behind rather strong cold front for mid-May. Yet another \u201ccool pool\u201d dips into the western U.S. and northern Rockies, then Plains for early next week \u2014> Pattern Flip!

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