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Tonight: High clouds from the subtropical jet stream out of the Eastern Pacific across Texas into the Southeast … but little in the way of rain/storms leftover into overnight hours.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days: much cooler than normal across the Eastern U.S. balanced out by significant “heat dome” over the West

Headlines for Thursday Evening

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Saturday, May 16th

Mild and comfortable temperatures for the majority of the Lower 48 into next weekend with 80s building across the Plains into the Midwest. Until then, a cold front dips highs in the 50s and 60s across the Great Lakes early next week before slowly recovering into the 70s. Only 25 million population at least 90°F on the weekend of May 15-16 —> quite amazing.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Various shortwaves rotating around the trough in Eastern Canada will keep northerly flow and some unsettled weather into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

• A Nor’easter like coastal storm could develop early next week and continue the cooler, Canadian flow pattern through next week. Maybe some snow in Quebec on the back side!

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

Finally a warming trend into Week 2 (May 14-20) as the western warmth shifts across the Mississippi River to reach the East Coast. This is an increasingly strong signal for Week 2 warmth — which we see in the composite maps next —>

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 7 - May 13

Significant chill: 6°F to 9°F below normal for a 7-day period from the Midwest and Great Lakes including Minnesota, Chicago, and Detroit and below normal dipping into the Southeast by a decent margin vs.

Very warm: 10° to 13°F above normal across the West with warmest compared to climatology over Nevada blanketing the entire region.

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 14 - May 19

Warmth remains across the Western U.S. centered on the central Rockies with extension into the Great Lakes.

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) —> ECMWF 12z next 10-days

The flow out of the Gulf of Mexico shuts off / closes for business next week as a cold front / Canadian trough wins the battle … amazing how resistant/persistent this pattern remains from winter into mid-May.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

Temperatures still chilly across the Great Lakes and New England

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

Lower 48 was -0.9°F BELOW normal with coolest in Texas > 22°F below normal

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Friday Morning

Lingering shows along the decaying stationary front from Texas into S. Georgia and South Carolina

HRRR Model Forecast Radar next 18-hours —> Friday Noon ET

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday 2 PM ET

Weather on Friday

Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

The Great Lakes and Northeast remains under continued influence of Canadian trough … and it should finally break / be replaced by ridging from the Western U.S. into Days 8-10+

However, Canada remains quite cold still into mid-May and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return of the northerly/cooler flow across the northern tier into Day 10.

Low Temperatures Friday Morning

Only 1.5 million below freezing mainly across the Great Lakes

High Temperatures Friday

Comfortable with 70s dominating the landscape … 28 million at least 90°F

60s in New York City and Boston — bit warmer in 70s in Washington D.C.

60s in Detroit and Chicago!

Hot in Florida — well into the 90s

And, even hotter in Phoenix over 102°F

High Temperatures on Saturday

High Temperatures on Sunday

10-day Forecasts — Washington, D.C., Chicago, New York City, Phoenix

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Evening

7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | to Next Thursday Evening

Tropical Update

One tropical wave on the analysis … well south in the ITCZ barely displaced from the Equator

African dust plume forecast next 10-days

Dust season cranking up across the Eastern Atlantic!

North Atlantic tropics — precipitable water next 6-days = dead quiet / no surprise as the ITCZ is still suppressed southward near the Equator in the Atlantic.

Western Pacific shows multiple “waves” and Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (05W) formed but unlikely to intensify much heading westward. Currently only 35-knots intensity - minimal storm.

Eastern Pacific Tropics — quiet — waiting on tropical waves to cross from the North Atlantic toward end of the month to get season started — which should be an active season with developing Super El Niño. Official start of EPAC season is May 15th.

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.