{ "number": 933, "headline": "May 7, 2026 Thursday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Quiet week of weather ahead with slow and steady warming into mid-May", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-05-08", "published": "2026-05-08T01:15:25.297000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 933: Good Evening! Day 127 of 2026. 23 more days until start of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

Tip: If this newsletter is truncated in an email, readers can click on \"View entire message,\" and you'll be able to view the entire post in their email app.

Tonight: High clouds from the subtropical jet stream out of the Eastern Pacific across Texas into the Southeast \u2026 but little in the way of rain/storms leftover into overnight hours.

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days: much cooler than normal across the Eastern U.S. balanced out by significant \u201cheat dome\u201d over the West

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Headlines for Thursday Evening

High Temperatures Next 9-days until Saturday, May 16th

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Mild and comfortable temperatures for the majority of the Lower 48 into next weekend with 80s building across the Plains into the Midwest. Until then, a cold front dips highs in the 50s and 60s across the Great Lakes early next week before slowly recovering into the 70s. Only 25 million population at least 90\u00b0F on the weekend of May 15-16 \u2014> quite amazing.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Various shortwaves rotating around the trough in Eastern Canada will keep northerly flow and some unsettled weather into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

ECMWF Flagship Ensemble Temperature Outlook

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Finally a warming trend into Week 2 (May 14-20) as the western warmth shifts across the Mississippi River to reach the East Coast. This is an increasingly strong signal for Week 2 warmth \u2014 which we see in the composite maps next \u2014>

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 7 - May 13

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Significant chill: 6\u00b0F to 9\u00b0F below normal for a 7-day period from the Midwest and Great Lakes including Minnesota, Chicago, and Detroit and below normal dipping into the Southeast by a decent margin vs.

Very warm: 10\u00b0 to 13\u00b0F above normal across the West with warmest compared to climatology over Nevada blanketing the entire region.

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 14 - May 19

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Warmth remains across the Western U.S. centered on the central Rockies with extension into the Great Lakes.

ECMWF 18z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) \u2014> ECMWF 12z next 10-days

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The flow out of the Gulf of Mexico shuts off / closes for business next week as a cold front / Canadian trough wins the battle \u2026 amazing how resistant/persistent this pattern remains from winter into mid-May.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Temperatures still chilly across the Great Lakes and New England

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 was -0.9\u00b0F BELOW normal with coolest in Texas > 22\u00b0F below normal

Lower 48 Weather This Evening into Friday Morning

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Lingering shows along the decaying stationary front from Texas into S. Georgia and South Carolina

HRRR Model Forecast Radar next 18-hours \u2014> Friday Noon ET

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Saturday 2 PM ET

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Weather on Friday

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Upper-Level Circulation Pattern

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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The Great Lakes and Northeast remains under continued influence of Canadian trough \u2026 and it should finally break / be replaced by ridging from the Western U.S. into Days 8-10+

However, Canada remains quite cold still into mid-May and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a return of the northerly/cooler flow across the northern tier into Day 10.

Low Temperatures Friday Morning

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Only 1.5 million below freezing mainly across the Great Lakes

High Temperatures Friday

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Comfortable with 70s dominating the landscape \u2026 28 million at least 90\u00b0F

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60s in New York City and Boston \u2014 bit warmer in 70s in Washington D.C.

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60s in Detroit and Chicago!

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Hot in Florida \u2014 well into the 90s

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And, even hotter in Phoenix over 102\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Saturday

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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10-day Forecasts \u2014 Washington, D.C., Chicago, New York City, Phoenix

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Sunday Evening

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7-Day Total Precipitation | Blend of Models | to Next Thursday Evening

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Tropical Update

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One tropical wave on the analysis \u2026 well south in the ITCZ barely displaced from the Equator

African dust plume forecast next 10-days

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Dust season cranking up across the Eastern Atlantic!

North Atlantic tropics \u2014 precipitable water next 6-days = dead quiet / no surprise as the ITCZ is still suppressed southward near the Equator in the Atlantic.

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Western Pacific shows multiple \u201cwaves\u201d and Tropical Storm HAGUPIT (05W) formed but unlikely to intensify much heading westward. Currently only 35-knots intensity - minimal storm.

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Eastern Pacific Tropics \u2014 quiet \u2014 waiting on tropical waves to cross from the North Atlantic toward end of the month to get season started \u2014 which should be an active season with developing Super El Ni\u00f1o. Official start of EPAC season is May 15th.

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Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS, HRRR/RRFS and Blend of Models (NBM). NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

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Tip: If this newsletter is truncated in an email, readers can click on "View entire message," and you'll be able to view the entire post in their email app.

Tonight: High clouds from the subtropical jet stream out of the Eastern Pacific across Texas into the Southeast \u2026 but little in the way of rain/storms leftover into overnight hours.

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