+New Twitter/X handle after almost 20-years! Welcome to a new month of May — only 30 more days until Hurricane Season 2026 starts. However, Earth’s summer and autumn climate will be under the influence of a (Super) El Niño.

Headlines for Friday

• East of the Rockies: Much below normal temperatures through middle of the month

• Ridge + moderate “heat dome” across Pacific Northwest and then expands across much of west into 2nd week of May

• Heavy rainfall / unsettled weather pattern across Southern U.S. from Texas into the Southeast along stationary frontal boundary … cool and dry Canadian continental (Arctic) air to the north vs. subtropical moisture along the Gulf of Mexico coast.

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 1 - May 7

7°F below normal for a week is pretty chilly still for early May … east of the Rockies.

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 8 - May 14

10°F above normal = heat across the Western U.S. vs. -6°F below normal centered on the Great Lakes into mid-May.

ECMWF 06z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

Strong northerly flow behind the stationary frontal boundary = dry Canadian air through the Gulf coast before return moisture plume into early next week —> Battle Zone for heavy rain (very welcome)

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

Lower 48 average was 45.1°F with 30s in the Great Lakes

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

Lower 48 was only -4.3°F BELOW normal

Lower 48 Weather Today | Friday surface analysis

Frontal boundary extends from South Texas along the Gulf Coast attached to a weak area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast. Heavy rain likely from Houston to New Orleans today.

HRRR precipitable water next 48-hours:

The edge of the cold front (dry to north) is very sharp from Texas through the Southeast with some undulation as weak disturbances move along the stationary boundary into this weekend.

HRRR Model Forecast Radar next 18-hours —> Saturday 1 AM ET

Heavy rain marches eastward from Texas along the Gulf coast into Atlanta by late tonight

HRRR 06z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Sunday 2 AM ET

The frontal boundary spawns a “low pressure” center off the Southeast coast that tracks northward to New England —> May Nor’easter to continue the cyclonic flow out of Canada across the Great Lakes and Northeast and Mid-Atlantic = cool!

Weather on Saturday — watching frontal boundary in North Florida for (Slight) risk of severe weather including Tallahassee and Jacksonville

Convective / Severe outlook for Saturday

Below normal temperatures next 14-days | East of Rockies

ECMWF AIFS 06z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

A cool and unsettled pattern from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Northeast for the next 10-days with significant / persistent troughing connecting to the cooler Canadian Arctic pool of air mainly out of the north (still snow covered ground).

10 day Precipitation Forecast | New Blend of Models v5.0

Multiple bouts of rainfall across the Southern U.S. from Texas to Florida — good news for the next 1-2 weeks as May starts out wet and cool.

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Into weekend — general cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and Northeast taps into cooler Canadian air mass — with moisture could be come snowfall in higher elevations of New England into the weekend. The Nor’easter by Sunday dips into the 970s mb — unusually intense for early May!

High Temperature Today | Friday

Temperature Anomaly | Highs Friday

Highs in the 90s across Florida!

Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

Still 20% of the Lower 48 area below freezing (20 million population)

High Temperatures Saturday

High Temperatures on Sunday

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Monday Morning

Total Precipitation Next 7-days | Blend of Models

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

Snowfall from ECMWF EPS Ensemble Median (15-days)

Snowfall probability of at least 1-inch into May 15th

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

Extended period of “below normal” temperatures dips into the Lower 48 east of the Rockies extending back into northwest Canada through first 2-weeks of May.

Where’s the heat dome? Along the Pacific Northwest and into California during next 1-2 weeks.

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

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