{ "number": 929, "headline": "May 1, 2026 Friday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Much below normal temperatures to start May with heavy rainfall along Gulf coast", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-05-01", "published": "2026-05-01T13:25:56.837000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 929: Good Morning! Day 121 of 2026. 30 more days until start of Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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+New Twitter/X handle after almost 20-years! Welcome to a new month of May \u2014 only 30 more days until Hurricane Season 2026 starts. However, Earth\u2019s summer and autumn climate will be under the influence of a (Super) El Ni\u00f1o.

Weather Trader is entirely reader-supported publication (no ads). To receive all new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. ALL CONTENT is original (human \u2014 Ryan) and not A.I.

Headlines for Friday

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | May 1 - May 7

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7\u00b0F below normal for a week is pretty chilly still for early May \u2026 east of the Rockies.

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | May 8 - May 14

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10\u00b0F above normal = heat across the Western U.S. vs. -6\u00b0F below normal centered on the Great Lakes into mid-May.

ECMWF 06z | Forecast 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter!)

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Strong northerly flow behind the stationary frontal boundary = dry Canadian air through the Gulf coast before return moisture plume into early next week \u2014> Battle Zone for heavy rain (very welcome)

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

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Lower 48 average was 45.1\u00b0F with 30s in the Great Lakes

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

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Lower 48 was only -4.3\u00b0F BELOW normal

Lower 48 Weather Today | Friday surface analysis

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Frontal boundary extends from South Texas along the Gulf Coast attached to a weak area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast. Heavy rain likely from Houston to New Orleans today.

HRRR precipitable water next 48-hours:

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The edge of the cold front (dry to north) is very sharp from Texas through the Southeast with some undulation as weak disturbances move along the stationary boundary into this weekend.

HRRR Model Forecast Radar next 18-hours \u2014> Saturday 1 AM ET

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Heavy rain marches eastward from Texas along the Gulf coast into Atlanta by late tonight

HRRR 06z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Sunday 2 AM ET

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The frontal boundary spawns a \u201clow pressure\u201d center off the Southeast coast that tracks northward to New England \u2014> May Nor\u2019easter to continue the cyclonic flow out of Canada across the Great Lakes and Northeast and Mid-Atlantic = cool!

Weather on Saturday \u2014 watching frontal boundary in North Florida for (Slight) risk of severe weather including Tallahassee and Jacksonville

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Convective / Severe outlook for Saturday

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Below normal temperatures next 14-days | East of Rockies

ECMWF AIFS 06z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

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A cool and unsettled pattern from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Northeast for the next 10-days with significant / persistent troughing connecting to the cooler Canadian Arctic pool of air mainly out of the north (still snow covered ground).

10 day Precipitation Forecast | New Blend of Models v5.0

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Multiple bouts of rainfall across the Southern U.S. from Texas to Florida \u2014 good news for the next 1-2 weeks as May starts out wet and cool.

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Into weekend \u2014 general cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and Northeast taps into cooler Canadian air mass \u2014 with moisture could be come snowfall in higher elevations of New England into the weekend. The Nor\u2019easter by Sunday dips into the 970s mb \u2014 unusually intense for early May!

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High Temperature Today | Friday

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Temperature Anomaly | Highs Friday

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Highs in the 90s across Florida!

Low Temperatures Saturday Morning

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Still 20% of the Lower 48 area below freezing (20 million population)

High Temperatures Saturday

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Monday Morning

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Total Precipitation Next 7-days | Blend of Models

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Snowfall from ECMWF EPS Ensemble Median (15-days)

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Snowfall probability of at least 1-inch into May 15th

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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Extended period of \u201cbelow normal\u201d temperatures dips into the Lower 48 east of the Rockies extending back into northwest Canada through first 2-weeks of May.

Where\u2019s the heat dome? Along the Pacific Northwest and into California during next 1-2 weeks.

Forecast from April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: 11/5/2

9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)

ACE: 75-85

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

+New Twitter/X handle after almost 20-years! Welcome to a new month of May \u2014 only 30 more days until Hurricane Season 2026 starts. However, Earth\u2019s summer and autumn climate will be under the influence of a (Super) El Ni\u00f1o.

East of the Rockies: Much below normal temperatures through middle of the month

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