Beautiful early Spring day across the Lower 48 with minimal weather disruptions. Sunshine and mild temperatures across the Southeast in the 60s mainly. Still chilly in the Northeast with only 30s — and below freezing in Maine.

Very hot in the Southwest with 90s and 100s for the deserts including Phoenix. A significant warming trend into Sunday and next week!

Saturday Analysis | NOAA GFS Model

Sometimes I forget to look at the “current analysis” or situation from the same model output used to generate the forecast animations. Good opportunity to show the maps right now (snapshots) from the GFS model from NOAA (give it some love).

Precipitable Water is my favorite parameter. It is a measure of the moisture in the atmospheric column and nicely highlights where polar air might be, frontal boundaries, and tropical plumes including hurricanes.

A strong cold front has exited the east coast but the tail end lingers over the Southeast / Gulf Coast with the driest air making it into central Georgia.

Temperature Anomaly — still very cold over much of Canada especially in Quebec with the “polar vortex” still strongly in control for last days of March.

Dynamic Tropopause (my second favorite map) also highlights the air masses at upper-levels near the jet stream e.g. polar (purple + white fuzzball), and tropical (red and black) colors on the map

The coldest anomaly on the tropopause corresponds to continued very strong / anomalous troughing over Quebec and Northeast Canada extending around Greenland. This is the tropospheric “polar vortex” that has been driving the now extended winter weather across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The 500 mb height anomaly map also shows the ridging over much of the Lower 48 centered on the 4 Corners. This ridge will push eastward — along with the main Canadian PV = significant warming trend.

500 mb Temperature — coldest at mid-levels still over all of Canada. I’m amazed to see -50°C still just outside the Arctic at 55° to 60°N latitude just east of Hudson Bay for March 28.

Model Predictions | ECMWF AIFS 06z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

The “polar vortex” anomaly over Quebec shifts eastward — dislodged by the ridge over the Lower 48 to the south. It heads around Greenland and pushes into north Atlantic closer to Europe —> Brief pattern shift to see the Eastern U.S. more under control of a dome of high pressure — not exactly a “heat dome” ridge like we saw in the Southwest for more than week, but much warmer and wetter with southerly flow opening up the Gulf of Mexico.

Quick look at Europe’s Upper-Level Weather Pattern

Very strong series of “cut-off lows” at mid-levels due to Rossby wave “trough thinning” dip into Libya and form a closed lower than 540 dm contour over the North Africa coast of the Mediterranean. This will incubate a surface low pressure (cyclone) of the relative warmer waters and drive a potential “Medicane”

The overall weather pattern shifts by 1/4 wavelength and a ridge replaces the prolonged cut-offs over Italy into second week of April.

European Weather Next 6-days | Precipitation Type and Intensity (ECMWF 06z)

Unsettled weather across Italy and Greece — with one or two (?) surface cyclones tracking out of Africa northward — weird and interesting!

Total Snowfall & Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

United States Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Warming trend into Wednesday before another Canadian cold front resets the temperatures back to freezing for the Great Lakes and Northeast yet again.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Sunday. April 5

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Sunday, April 5

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

Pattern shift — with southerly flow = boatloads of rainfall mainly along and east of the Mississippi River. 10-day totals of 4-inches would be MOST welcome.

Weather/Fronts today into Sunday morning: Quiet

HRRR 12z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Monday, 8 AM ET

Weather on Sunday — continued very quiet and warming

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Monday Morning

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Monday Morning

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 11:30 AM ET

Lower 48 average was 47.1°F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 11:30 AM ET

Lower 48 is -1.3°F below normal

High Temperatures Today | Saturday

108.5 million at least 70°F — certainly not as hot as last week

Temperature Anomaly Today | Saturday High

Low Temperatures Sunday

Still 63 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Sunday

Warming trend — 155 million at least 70°F and 89 million at 80°+

Temperature Anomaly | Sunday Highs

Still need to warm up the eastern edge of the Lower 48 — with some blue still on the map for high temperature anomaly on Sunday

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Quiet weather until Tuesday — with the pattern shift allowing warm, moist air to return from the Gulf of Mexico to fuel storm systems

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

Moisture Transport | Next 12-days | ECMWF 00z

Multiple Gulf moisture surges —> potential for heavy rain and severe weather

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

The -50°C super-cold pool pushes away from Canada, and we see a downtick in the overall cold pool strength over Canada at mid-levels into second week of April, transitioning into Spring.

European Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

Multiple cut-off lows drop out of the main polar front — and 500 mb temperature shows them quiet well tracking through North Africa.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [00z] | Next 15-days

Probability of at least 3” of Snowfall Next 15-days

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (06z) next 15-days

AIFS 06z has storm system early Friday with heavy snowfall in New England

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 28 - April 3

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 4 - April 10

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.