{ "number": 906, "headline": "March 28, 2026 Saturday Spring Weather", "standfirst": "Quiet weather this weekend with cool Canadian high pressure but warmth and heavy rainfall later upcoming week", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-28", "published": "2026-03-28T16:51:21.130000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"
\"\"

This is post number 906: Good Afternoon! Day 87 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

Subscribe now

Beautiful early Spring day across the Lower 48 with minimal weather disruptions. Sunshine and mild temperatures across the Southeast in the 60s mainly. Still chilly in the Northeast with only 30s \u2014 and below freezing in Maine.

Very hot in the Southwest with 90s and 100s for the deserts including Phoenix. A significant warming trend into Sunday and next week!

\"\"

Saturday Analysis | NOAA GFS Model

Sometimes I forget to look at the \u201ccurrent analysis\u201d or situation from the same model output used to generate the forecast animations. Good opportunity to show the maps right now (snapshots) from the GFS model from NOAA (give it some love).

Precipitable Water is my favorite parameter. It is a measure of the moisture in the atmospheric column and nicely highlights where polar air might be, frontal boundaries, and tropical plumes including hurricanes.

\"\"

A strong cold front has exited the east coast but the tail end lingers over the Southeast / Gulf Coast with the driest air making it into central Georgia.

Temperature Anomaly \u2014 still very cold over much of Canada especially in Quebec with the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d still strongly in control for last days of March.

\"\"

Dynamic Tropopause (my second favorite map) also highlights the air masses at upper-levels near the jet stream e.g. polar (purple + white fuzzball), and tropical (red and black) colors on the map

\"\"

The coldest anomaly on the tropopause corresponds to continued very strong / anomalous troughing over Quebec and Northeast Canada extending around Greenland. This is the tropospheric \u201cpolar vortex\u201d that has been driving the now extended winter weather across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The 500 mb height anomaly map also shows the ridging over much of the Lower 48 centered on the 4 Corners. This ridge will push eastward \u2014 along with the main Canadian PV = significant warming trend.

\"\"

500 mb Temperature \u2014 coldest at mid-levels still over all of Canada. I\u2019m amazed to see -50\u00b0C still just outside the Arctic at 55\u00b0 to 60\u00b0N latitude just east of Hudson Bay for March 28.

\"\"

Share

Model Predictions | ECMWF AIFS 06z next 10-days of 500 mb Height Anomaly

\"\"

The \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anomaly over Quebec shifts eastward \u2014 dislodged by the ridge over the Lower 48 to the south. It heads around Greenland and pushes into north Atlantic closer to Europe \u2014> Brief pattern shift to see the Eastern U.S. more under control of a dome of high pressure \u2014 not exactly a \u201cheat dome\u201d ridge like we saw in the Southwest for more than week, but much warmer and wetter with southerly flow opening up the Gulf of Mexico.

Quick look at Europe\u2019s Upper-Level Weather Pattern

\"\"

Very strong series of \u201ccut-off lows\u201d at mid-levels due to Rossby wave \u201ctrough thinning\u201d dip into Libya and form a closed lower than 540 dm contour over the North Africa coast of the Mediterranean. This will incubate a surface low pressure (cyclone) of the relative warmer waters and drive a potential \u201cMedicane\u201d

The overall weather pattern shifts by 1/4 wavelength and a ridge replaces the prolonged cut-offs over Italy into second week of April.

European Weather Next 6-days | Precipitation Type and Intensity (ECMWF 06z)

\"\"

Unsettled weather across Italy and Greece \u2014 with one or two (?) surface cyclones tracking out of Africa northward \u2014 weird and interesting!

Total Snowfall & Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

\"\"
\"\"

United States Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

\"\"

Warming trend into Wednesday before another Canadian cold front resets the temperatures back to freezing for the Great Lakes and Northeast yet again.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Sunday. April 5

\"\"

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Sunday, April 5

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

\"\"

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Pattern shift \u2014 with southerly flow = boatloads of rainfall mainly along and east of the Mississippi River. 10-day totals of 4-inches would be MOST welcome.

\"\"

Weather/Fronts today into Sunday morning: Quiet

\"\"

HRRR 12z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Monday, 8 AM ET

\"\"

Weather on Sunday \u2014 continued very quiet and warming

\"\"

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Monday Morning

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Monday Morning

\"\"

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 11:30 AM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 average was 47.1\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 11:30 AM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 is -1.3\u00b0F below normal

High Temperatures Today | Saturday

\"\"

108.5 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014 certainly not as hot as last week

Temperature Anomaly Today | Saturday High

\"\"

Low Temperatures Sunday

\"\"

Still 63 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Sunday

\"\"

Warming trend \u2014 155 million at least 70\u00b0F and 89 million at 80\u00b0+

Temperature Anomaly | Sunday Highs

\"\"

Still need to warm up the eastern edge of the Lower 48 \u2014 with some blue still on the map for high temperature anomaly on Sunday

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

Quiet weather until Tuesday \u2014 with the pattern shift allowing warm, moist air to return from the Gulf of Mexico to fuel storm systems

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

\"\"

Moisture Transport | Next 12-days | ECMWF 00z

\"\"

Multiple Gulf moisture surges \u2014> potential for heavy rain and severe weather

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

\"\"

The -50\u00b0C super-cold pool pushes away from Canada, and we see a downtick in the overall cold pool strength over Canada at mid-levels into second week of April, transitioning into Spring.

European Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

\"\"

Multiple cut-off lows drop out of the main polar front \u2014 and 500 mb temperature shows them quiet well tracking through North Africa.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [00z] | Next 15-days

\"\"

Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

\"\"

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

\"\"

Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (06z) next 15-days

\"\"

AIFS 06z has storm system early Friday with heavy snowfall in New England

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean

\"\"

Week #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 28 - April 3

\"\"

Week #2 | Temperature Anomaly | April 4 - April 10

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Beautiful early Spring day across the Lower 48 with minimal weather disruptions. Sunshine and mild temperatures across the Southeast in the 60s mainly. Still chilly in the Northeast with only 30s \u2014 and below freezing in Maine.

Very hot in the Southwest with 90s and 100s for the deserts including Phoenix. A significant warming trend into Sunday and next week!

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/march-28-2026-saturday-spring-weather" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "192421846.march-28-2026-saturday-spring-weather", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/march-28-2026-saturday-spring-weather", "slug": "march-28-2026-saturday-spring-weather", "path": "/mp/906/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/906/", "desk_label": "Notebook", "digest": "8152dfd48da29a00e70d7f252e447b1514302aba06e4d4aa92d119214cf3c0d2" }