Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) for the Middle East shows a cut-off low forming a surface cyclone (low pressure) over Iraq and sending a strong “cold front” through Saudi Arabia. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will blossom for next several days as the atmosphere remains very moist and unstable.

Plenty of moisture out of the Mediterranean and Red Sea will provide fuel for thunderstorms, some of which could have massive hail with the mid-level cooler air, and wicked ascent profiles over the desert landscape. Next 90-hours:

Total rainfall amounts will be exceptional across the entire Arabian Peninsula, and along eastern Iraq into Iran, and down through the Persian Gulf. That red is at least 2” of rainfall with embedded areas of 6” to 10” possible in heaviest downpours.

Extreme rainfall + desert landscape = flooding (high potential). Rainfall next 6-days:

Upper-Level Weather Pattern Across Europe into the Middle East

Two strong blocking highs are stuck in place … with “trough thinning” or Rossby “wave breaking” in between bringing higher PV air southward to combine with the moisture = instability and showers/storms. These “bowling balls” travel along the 30°N latitude and trigger all sorts of extreme weather conditions around the globe.

European Weather Next 6-days —> two major cut-off low events

Strong cut-off low event also over Italy into Greece upstream of the aforementioned system over Iraq.

Total Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

United States

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Thursday, April 2

Heat expands eastward before a cold front sweeps through the Great Lakes and Northeast into Friday and the weekend. The western U.S. cools down significantly into early April.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Thursday, April 2

Freezing temperatures return to the Rockies and Great Basin to start April.

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

Western U.S. snowfall starting to show up more in the Blend of Models ensembles. We’ll see the ECMWF HRES/AIFS with much more in the coming 2-weeks.

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday, 2 PM ET

Next Clipper storm system into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, then another on Thursday.

Weather on Wednesday

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Friday Evening

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Friday Evening

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

Lower 48 average was 62.1°F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

Lower 48 is 9.3°F ABOVE normal and increasing again!

Low Temperatures Wednesday

Only 28 million below freezing.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

Hot with 115 million at least 80°F … Texas into the Plains well into the 90s.

Temperature Anomaly | 25°-35°F above normal

High Temperatures on Thursday

Warmth expands eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with nearly 70s into New York City and Washington D.C. Temperature anomaly maximum of 37°F in the central Plains where temperatures will climb to near 100°F (Oklahoma panhandle)

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Best chance of significant rainfall and storms is Thursday into Friday across the Ohio River valley with a Clipper-type system and cold front sweeping through the eastern U.S. — but not much else to talk about with the “heat dome” in charge for end of March.

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

Moisture Transport | Next 10-days | ECMWF 12z

Gulf of Mexico returns to action by next Thursday (?)

Forecast | Phoenix next 10-days

Forecast | Chicago next 10-Days

Forecast | Washington D.C. next 10-days

Forecast | Dallas Fort Worth next 10-days

Forecast | Denver next 10-days

Forecast | Boston next 10-days

Forecast | Atlanta next 10-days

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

The tropospheric polar vortex remains “cold” and spinning strongly through end of March. The cold pool of -40°C to -48°C temperature air at 500 mb shifts 1/2 wavelength to the east … trough across the West vs. ridging across East — allowed by the Canadian Arctic cold pool moving toward Greenland.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [12z] | Next 15-days

Western U.S. snowfall forecasts in the ensemble dialing upward …

Probability of at least 3” of Snowfall Next 15-days

Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

That’s a very healthy looking first week of April across the Western U.S.

Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

AIFS agrees with HRES

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

The Canadian cold pool with the “Polar Vortex” will give up into first week of April! The heat dome across the Lower 48 expands eastward into Days 6-10, and then the west shifts neutral to cooler than normal.

AIFS next 12-days of Height Anomaly shows the persistence of the western ridge for next 10-days … with the Canadian / Hudson Bay polar vortex continuing to spin. Pattern change with a western U.S. trough by April 1st pushing the heat dome away.

Ridging builds across the Eastern U.S. into Days 8-10 = pattern shift!

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 24 - March 28

20°F maximum temperature anomaly for 5-days across the Western U.S. finally trending downward as the heat dome relaxes

Meanwhile, the cold over Canada continues … like a layered cake

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 29 - April 2

Much above normal warmth shifts eastward centered … almost coast to coast except for New England.

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | April 3 - April 7

Eastern U.S. warmth for the first week of April … signal is somewhat strong at up to 10°F above normal. Note there is blue again across the Four Corners (below normal)

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