{ "number": 903, "headline": "March 24, 2026 Tuesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Much above normal temperatures expand eastward across Lower 48", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-25", "published": "2026-03-25T01:46:55.159000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) for the Middle East shows a cut-off low forming a surface cyclone (low pressure) over Iraq and sending a strong \u201ccold front\u201d through Saudi Arabia. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will blossom for next several days as the atmosphere remains very moist and unstable.

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Plenty of moisture out of the Mediterranean and Red Sea will provide fuel for thunderstorms, some of which could have massive hail with the mid-level cooler air, and wicked ascent profiles over the desert landscape. Next 90-hours:

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Total rainfall amounts will be exceptional across the entire Arabian Peninsula, and along eastern Iraq into Iran, and down through the Persian Gulf. That red is at least 2\u201d of rainfall with embedded areas of 6\u201d to 10\u201d possible in heaviest downpours.

Extreme rainfall + desert landscape = flooding (high potential). Rainfall next 6-days:

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This is post number 903: Good Evening! Day 83 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

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Upper-Level Weather Pattern Across Europe into the Middle East

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Two strong blocking highs are stuck in place \u2026 with \u201ctrough thinning\u201d or Rossby \u201cwave breaking\u201d in between bringing higher PV air southward to combine with the moisture = instability and showers/storms. These \u201cbowling balls\u201d travel along the 30\u00b0N latitude and trigger all sorts of extreme weather conditions around the globe.

European Weather Next 6-days \u2014> two major cut-off low events

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Strong cut-off low event also over Italy into Greece upstream of the aforementioned system over Iraq.

Total Precipitation Next 6-days across Europe

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United States

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Thursday, April 2

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Heat expands eastward before a cold front sweeps through the Great Lakes and Northeast into Friday and the weekend. The western U.S. cools down significantly into early April.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Lows through Thursday, April 2

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Freezing temperatures return to the Rockies and Great Basin to start April.

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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Western U.S. snowfall starting to show up more in the Blend of Models ensembles. We\u2019ll see the ECMWF HRES/AIFS with much more in the coming 2-weeks.

Blend of Models | 10-Days Precipitation Total

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Thursday, 2 PM ET

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Next Clipper storm system into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, then another on Thursday.

Weather on Wednesday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Friday Evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Friday Evening

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 average was 62.1\u00b0F

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 8:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 is 9.3\u00b0F ABOVE normal and increasing again!

Low Temperatures Wednesday

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Only 28 million below freezing.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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Hot with 115 million at least 80\u00b0F \u2026 Texas into the Plains well into the 90s.

Temperature Anomaly | 25\u00b0-35\u00b0F above normal

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High Temperatures on Thursday

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Warmth expands eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with nearly 70s into New York City and Washington D.C. Temperature anomaly maximum of 37\u00b0F in the central Plains where temperatures will climb to near 100\u00b0F (Oklahoma panhandle)

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Best chance of significant rainfall and storms is Thursday into Friday across the Ohio River valley with a Clipper-type system and cold front sweeping through the eastern U.S. \u2014 but not much else to talk about with the \u201cheat dome\u201d in charge for end of March.

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Moisture Transport | Next 10-days | ECMWF 12z

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Gulf of Mexico returns to action by next Thursday (?)

Forecast | Phoenix next 10-days

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Forecast | Chicago next 10-Days

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Forecast | Washington D.C. next 10-days

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Forecast | Dallas Fort Worth next 10-days

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Forecast | Denver next 10-days

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Forecast | Boston next 10-days

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Forecast | Atlanta next 10-days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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The tropospheric polar vortex remains \u201ccold\u201d and spinning strongly through end of March. The cold pool of -40\u00b0C to -48\u00b0C temperature air at 500 mb shifts 1/2 wavelength to the east \u2026 trough across the West vs. ridging across East \u2014 allowed by the Canadian Arctic cold pool moving toward Greenland.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles [12z] | Next 15-days

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Western U.S. snowfall forecasts in the ensemble dialing upward \u2026

Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Snowfall from ECMWF HRES (15-days)

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That\u2019s a very healthy looking first week of April across the Western U.S.

Snowfall from ECMWF AIFS-Single (18z) next 15-days

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AIFS agrees with HRES

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean

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The Canadian cold pool with the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d will give up into first week of April! The heat dome across the Lower 48 expands eastward into Days 6-10, and then the west shifts neutral to cooler than normal.

AIFS next 12-days of Height Anomaly shows the persistence of the western ridge for next 10-days \u2026 with the Canadian / Hudson Bay polar vortex continuing to spin. Pattern change with a western U.S. trough by April 1st pushing the heat dome away.

Ridging builds across the Eastern U.S. into Days 8-10 = pattern shift!

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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 24 - March 28

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20\u00b0F maximum temperature anomaly for 5-days across the Western U.S. finally trending downward as the heat dome relaxes

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Meanwhile, the cold over Canada continues \u2026 like a layered cake

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 29 - April 2

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Much above normal warmth shifts eastward centered \u2026 almost coast to coast except for New England.

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | April 3 - April 7

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Eastern U.S. warmth for the first week of April \u2026 signal is somewhat strong at up to 10\u00b0F above normal. Note there is blue again across the Four Corners (below normal)

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter) for the Middle East shows a cut-off low forming a surface cyclone (low pressure) over Iraq and sending a strong \u201ccold front\u201d through Saudi Arabia. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will blossom for next several days as the atmosphere remains very moist and unstable.

Plenty of moisture out of the Mediterranean and Red Sea will provide fuel for thunderstorms, some of which could have massive hail with the mid-level cooler air, and wicked ascent profiles over the desert landscape. Next 90-hours:

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