Temperatures over next 48-hours show the Arctic plunge east of the Rockies including Texas on Monday. However, recovery is quick in the plains with 60s returning on Tuesday. Very cold in the Great Lakes with below zero low temperatures including Minneapolis. Freezing temperatures Tuesday morning in Atlanta. Quite the roller coaster — downhill from 70s to 30s in the Ohio Rivery Valley.

Ongoing major severe weather event along the Arctic front this evening … I’m sure many folks are watching their radars. As always, get the most up-to-date real-time information from the National Weather Service or your hometown favorite on-air meteorologist. This blog — and my job — is to inform readers of the overall weather pattern and prepare for extreme weather in the coming days or even weeks.

The convective outlook from SPC has today’s severe outbreak in the “Enhanced Risk” category for 22.5 million population.

Active tornado watch boxes extend from Illinois to Texas at the 8 PM ET hour

Nasty squall line depicted by HRRR over next 18-hours — to Monday Noon ET

Winds gusting at hurricane force over Northern Lake Michigan and across the UP into Lake Superior as “bomb cyclone” tracks over Traverse City into Noon tomorrow.

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

Snowfall yet to come from the ongoing blizzard

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Monday 2 PM ET

HRRR snowfall next 48-hours until 2 PM ET on Tuesday

Monday Convective Outlook —> Moderate Risk of Severe Weather as squall line approaches Mid-Atlantic and East Coast … from SPC

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
   Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
   particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
   Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.

Tornado Risk is 15% — not expecting too many “strong tornadoes” but more QLCS spin-ups along the main cold front / squall line with cells embedded

Higher Risk of extreme winds — and could be damaging including Washington D.C. to Raleigh, North Carolinas

Weather on Monday

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Wed Evening

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Wednesday Evening

Ice accumulation | NWS next 72-hours

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

Lower 48 is -3.0°F below normal

RTMA Current Temperature 24-hour Change | 7:00 PM ET

Large area of more than 40°F colder temperatures from 24-hours prior

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Western U.S. | Heat Dome in charge w/moisture going to north

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Arctic blast east of the Rockies + Alaska (stuck in deep freeze) vs. Heat Dome and record heat across the West quickly expands east to decimate the remaining Arctic air. We will return to Spring quickly across the Eastern U.S.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Tuesday, March 24

100s take over the Southwest vs. below freezing highs / coldest on Tuesday across Great Lakes into Ohio River Valley

Blend of Models Temperatures | Low through Tuesday, March 24

Freeze to the Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

Low Temperatures on Monday

High Temperatures on Monday

Tuesday Low Temperatures

Tuesday High Temperatures

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

Major Polar Vortex lobe dips out of Canada to fuel the massive blizzard. The core cold pool remains at -45°C before breaking down into first days of Spring.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

Probability of at least 3” of Snowfall Next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

Ridge —> A major heat dome develops across the Western U.S.

Trough —> Very cold air for mid-March blasts out of Canada into the eastern U.S.

Extreme cold over Alaska continues through Week 2

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 15 - March 19

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 20 - March 24

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 25 - March 29

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.