{ "number": 897, "headline": "March 15, 2026 Sunday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Strong Arctic front returns Eastern U.S. to colder winter wather", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-16", "published": "2026-03-16T00:45:59.804000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Temperatures over next 48-hours show the Arctic plunge east of the Rockies including Texas on Monday. However, recovery is quick in the plains with 60s returning on Tuesday. Very cold in the Great Lakes with below zero low temperatures including Minneapolis. Freezing temperatures Tuesday morning in Atlanta. Quite the roller coaster \u2014 downhill from 70s to 30s in the Ohio Rivery Valley.

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Ongoing major severe weather event along the Arctic front this evening \u2026 I\u2019m sure many folks are watching their radars. As always, get the most up-to-date real-time information from the National Weather Service or your hometown favorite on-air meteorologist. This blog \u2014 and my job \u2014 is to inform readers of the overall weather pattern and prepare for extreme weather in the coming days or even weeks.

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The convective outlook from SPC has today\u2019s severe outbreak in the \u201cEnhanced Risk\u201d category for 22.5 million population.

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Active tornado watch boxes extend from Illinois to Texas at the 8 PM ET hour

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This is post number 897: Good Evening! Day 74 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication. To receive all new posts [daily] via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. [Spring 2026 Coupon Offer]

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Nasty squall line depicted by HRRR over next 18-hours \u2014 to Monday Noon ET

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Winds gusting at hurricane force over Northern Lake Michigan and across the UP into Lake Superior as \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d tracks over Traverse City into Noon tomorrow.

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Snowfall yet to come from the ongoing blizzard

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Monday 2 PM ET

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HRRR snowfall next 48-hours until 2 PM ET on Tuesday

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Monday Convective Outlook \u2014> Moderate Risk of Severe Weather as squall line approaches Mid-Atlantic and East Coast \u2026 from SPC

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   ...SUMMARY...\n   Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the\n   Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and\n   particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South\n   Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.

Tornado Risk is 15% \u2014 not expecting too many \u201cstrong tornadoes\u201d but more QLCS spin-ups along the main cold front / squall line with cells embedded

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Higher Risk of extreme winds \u2014 and could be damaging including Washington D.C. to Raleigh, North Carolinas

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Weather on Monday

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Wed Evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Wednesday Evening

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Ice accumulation | NWS next 72-hours

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:00 PM ET

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Lower 48 is -3.0\u00b0F below normal

RTMA Current Temperature 24-hour Change | 7:00 PM ET

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Large area of more than 40\u00b0F colder temperatures from 24-hours prior

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Western U.S. | Heat Dome in charge w/moisture going to north

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Arctic blast east of the Rockies + Alaska (stuck in deep freeze) vs. Heat Dome and record heat across the West quickly expands east to decimate the remaining Arctic air. We will return to Spring quickly across the Eastern U.S.

Blend of Models Temperatures | Highs through Tuesday, March 24

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100s take over the Southwest vs. below freezing highs / coldest on Tuesday across Great Lakes into Ohio River Valley

Blend of Models Temperatures | Low through Tuesday, March 24

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Freeze to the Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Low Temperatures on Monday

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High Temperatures on Monday

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Tuesday Low Temperatures

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Tuesday High Temperatures

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Major Polar Vortex lobe dips out of Canada to fuel the massive blizzard. The core cold pool remains at -45\u00b0C before breaking down into first days of Spring.

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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Ridge \u2014> A major heat dome develops across the Western U.S.

Trough \u2014> Very cold air for mid-March blasts out of Canada into the eastern U.S.

Extreme cold over Alaska continues through Week 2

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 15 - March 19

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 20 - March 24

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 25 - March 29

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Temperatures over next 48-hours show the Arctic plunge east of the Rockies including Texas on Monday. However, recovery is quick in the plains with 60s returning on Tuesday. Very cold in the Great Lakes with below zero low temperatures including Minneapolis. Freezing temperatures Tuesday morning in Atlanta. Quite the roller coaster \u2014 downhill from 70s to 30s in the Ohio Rivery Valley.

Ongoing major severe weather event along the Arctic front this evening \u2026 I\u2019m sure many folks are watching their radars. As always, get the most up-to-date real-time information from the National Weather Service or your hometown favorite on-air meteorologist. This blog \u2014 and my job \u2014 is to inform readers of the overall weather pattern and prepare for extreme weather in the coming days or even weeks.

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