HRRR Simulated Radar next 18-hours —> Thursday 1 PM ET

Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall moving from Louisiana eastward through the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. Current focus of severe weather —> Slight Risk with ongoing tornado watch

Snowfall from the Blend of Models for the next 10-days is incredible with upwards of 4-feet expected in the UP of Michigan and along a huge swath into Ontario and Quebec.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

4 Major Storm Systems

1. Potent Alberta Clipper System scoots from Midwest into Great Lakes on Friday

2. 974 mb “Bomb Cyclone” —> MASSIVE blizzard Sunday into Monday for Midwest and Great Lakes — more on this tomorrow with updated modeling details — bit too soon to lock in snowfall amounts and winds (gusts to hurricane force)

3. Pacific Northwest atmospheric rivers —> heavy rain and mountain snowfall.

4. Hawaii extended “Kona low” moisture flow —> flooding

Western U.S. — atmospheric river onslaught into Pacific Northwest

Hawaii Kona Low — incredible rainfall (10” to 30”+) from tropical atmospheric river feeds

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Much colder air arriving behind storm systems — and especially the blizzard on Monday —> very sharp frontal boundary with Arctic blast and freezes into the Southeast yet again.

Tuesday Morning Lows —> COLD

Daily High Temperatures to Friday, March 20th

MAJOR (record setting) Heat Dome forms across Western U.S. with temperatures in the Southwest pushing well into the 100s including Phoenix by Tuesday.

The polar vortex enabled trough across the Eastern U.S. will drop freezing temperatures for daytime highs across the Midwest and Great Lakes early next week.

Lows to Next Friday, March 20th

Frost/freeze incoming Tuesday into the Southeast

Boatloads of precipitation / heavy rainfall + snowfall for next 10-days

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

Arctic cold pool is mostly held back into Canada but the upcoming storm system Thu/Fri does sample that drier/cooler air mass, but the massive blizzard on Sunday / Monday has full weight of polar vortex (dry, cold) air behind it

Next 10-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

Hawaii is inundated by a long-lived and intense / Major Category atmospheric river

Weather into Thursday morning — storms in the Southeast move eastward during the overnight hours but losing punch by time reach Atlanta

Slight Chance of Severe Weather (mainly hail, isolated tornado)

HRRR 23z —> Thursday 1 PM ET

Weather on Thursday into early Morning Friday

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Friday 2 PM ET

Snowfall in Washington D.C. but minimal accumulations

This is 5 pm on Thursday

With temperatures in the mid-30s —> 36°F would mean minimal snow accumulations but also big, wet flakes with high moisture content

HRRR does have some more substantial accumulations at higher elevations (48-hours)

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

Lower 48 is 2.8°F above normal

Low Temperatures on Thursday

81 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Thursday

Only 91 Million at least 70°F and 52 million at least 80°F

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Saturday Afternoon

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Saturday Afternoon

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

The entire PV descends / stretches southward … and plenty cold with the centroid at -45°C at 500 mb … with a lobe into Great Lakes / Northeast at Days 4-6 (Sunday-Tuesday) …. Remarkably strong PV / Arctic blast for mid-March!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 12-days

Major heat dome across the Western U.S. vs. trough dipping out of Canada east of the Rockies = very cold

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 10-days

Probability of at least 3” of Snowfall Next 10-days

Probability of at least 12” of Snowfall Next 10-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

Massive western Heat Dome finally breaks down in 10-12 days … impressive “Polar Vortex” Arctic blast

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 11 - March 15

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 16 - March 20

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 21 - March 25

Overall Temperature Anomaly Averaged over next 15-days

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