{ "number": 893, "headline": "March 11, 2026 Wednesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Massive blizzard in Great Lakes by Sunday with multiple feet of snowfall", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-12", "published": "2026-03-12T01:33:34.743000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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HRRR Simulated Radar next 18-hours \u2014> Thursday 1 PM ET

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Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall moving from Louisiana eastward through the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. Current focus of severe weather \u2014> Slight Risk with ongoing tornado watch

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This is post number 893: Good Evening! Day 70 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

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Snowfall from the Blend of Models for the next 10-days is incredible with upwards of 4-feet expected in the UP of Michigan and along a huge swath into Ontario and Quebec.

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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4 Major Storm Systems

  1. Potent Alberta Clipper System scoots from Midwest into Great Lakes on Friday

  2. 974 mb \u201cBomb Cyclone\u201d \u2014> MASSIVE blizzard Sunday into Monday for Midwest and Great Lakes \u2014 more on this tomorrow with updated modeling details \u2014 bit too soon to lock in snowfall amounts and winds (gusts to hurricane force)

  3. Pacific Northwest atmospheric rivers \u2014> heavy rain and mountain snowfall.

  4. Hawaii extended \u201cKona low\u201d moisture flow \u2014> flooding

Western U.S. \u2014 atmospheric river onslaught into Pacific Northwest

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Hawaii Kona Low \u2014 incredible rainfall (10\u201d to 30\u201d+) from tropical atmospheric river feeds

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Much colder air arriving behind storm systems \u2014 and especially the blizzard on Monday \u2014> very sharp frontal boundary with Arctic blast and freezes into the Southeast yet again.

Tuesday Morning Lows \u2014> COLD

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Daily High Temperatures to Friday, March 20th

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MAJOR (record setting) Heat Dome forms across Western U.S. with temperatures in the Southwest pushing well into the 100s including Phoenix by Tuesday.

The polar vortex enabled trough across the Eastern U.S. will drop freezing temperatures for daytime highs across the Midwest and Great Lakes early next week.

Lows to Next Friday, March 20th

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Frost/freeze incoming Tuesday into the Southeast

Boatloads of precipitation / heavy rainfall + snowfall for next 10-days

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Arctic cold pool is mostly held back into Canada but the upcoming storm system Thu/Fri does sample that drier/cooler air mass, but the massive blizzard on Sunday / Monday has full weight of polar vortex (dry, cold) air behind it

Next 10-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

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Hawaii is inundated by a long-lived and intense / Major Category atmospheric river

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Weather into Thursday morning \u2014 storms in the Southeast move eastward during the overnight hours but losing punch by time reach Atlanta

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Slight Chance of Severe Weather (mainly hail, isolated tornado)

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HRRR 23z \u2014> Thursday 1 PM ET

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Weather on Thursday into early Morning Friday

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HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Friday 2 PM ET

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Snowfall in Washington D.C. but minimal accumulations

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This is 5 pm on Thursday

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With temperatures in the mid-30s \u2014> 36\u00b0F would mean minimal snow accumulations but also big, wet flakes with high moisture content

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HRRR does have some more substantial accumulations at higher elevations (48-hours)

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RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 is 2.8\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Thursday

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81 million below freezing

High Temperatures on Thursday

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Only 91 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 52 million at least 80\u00b0F

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Saturday Afternoon

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Saturday Afternoon

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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The entire PV descends / stretches southward \u2026 and plenty cold with the centroid at -45\u00b0C at 500 mb \u2026 with a lobe into Great Lakes / Northeast at Days 4-6 (Sunday-Tuesday) \u2026. Remarkably strong PV / Arctic blast for mid-March!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 12-days

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Major heat dome across the Western U.S. vs. trough dipping out of Canada east of the Rockies = very cold

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 10-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 10-days

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Probability of at least 12\u201d of Snowfall Next 10-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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Massive western Heat Dome finally breaks down in 10-12 days \u2026 impressive \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d Arctic blast

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 11 - March 15

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 16 - March 20

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 21 - March 25

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Overall Temperature Anomaly Averaged over next 15-days

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HRRR Simulated Radar next 18-hours \u2014> Thursday 1 PM ET

Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall moving from Louisiana eastward through the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. Current focus of severe weather \u2014> Slight Risk with ongoing tornado watch

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