Daily High Temperatures to Friday, March 13th.

Spring like warmth continues into next week with only minor/brief interludes from passing cold fronts and storm systems.

Lows for the next 8-days — through Friday morning the 13th.

Very mild eastern U.S. for next 7-days with southerly flow, and then we will see (hopefully) winter’s final Arctic blast move through the Lower 48 for middle March.

Friday’s Record Highs — 70s into Chicago and 80s to Nashville!

Boatloads of precipitation / heavy rainfall for next 7-days+

Upwards of 4”of rainfall from Texas to Ohio River Valley.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days —> Much above normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 with warm, southerly flow. The coldest Arctic air across Canada is eroded with help from the Pacific leaving Alaska as the main source of cold pool formation. That cool air dips into the Pacific Northwest into middle of next week.

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

Interesting cut-off low spins off the coast of Baja California next week, but doesn’t do much.

Arctic air cannot make much progress against the southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico, remaining largely locked up in Canada for the next 7-9 days.

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

Next week or so, multiple surges of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enhanced by storm systems = heavy rain and thunderstorms (severe weather) across the central Plains and eastward — “ring of fire” around subtropical ridge / Bermuda High.

Pacific moisture also introduced to the upper-level pattern for southern Canada, and the Pacific Northwest.

Weather into Thursday morning — slight chance of severe weather along a frontal boundary from Dallas to St. Louis with heavy rain in Southern Indiana and Ohio.

Slow moving thunderstorms with locally flooding rains over DFW this evening on radar through 6:20 CT

HRRR Simulated Radar into Thursday morning 11 AM ET

Rain and thunderstorms into Thursday morning … some of which could be heavy but only a slight chance of severe storms.

Convective Outlook through 7 AM Thursday

Weather On Thursday — winter weather in the Northeast again!

Slight chance of severe weather from Lubbock to Wichita on Thursday

HRRR 18z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Friday 1 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 6:45 PM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 6:45 PM ET

Lower 48 is a whopping 10.0°F above normal

Low Temperatures on Thursday

Only 32 million below freezing mainly New England

High Temperatures on Thursday

150 Million at least 70°F and 54 million at least 80°F

Highs on Friday

Even more — 183 million at least 70°F and 79 million > 80°F

High Temperatures on Saturday

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Saturday Afternoon

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Saturday afternoon

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

Still watching the middle of next week for the entire Polar Vortex shifts/stretches southward closer to the Canadian border with potential for “lobes” of cold Arctic air — even for mid-March — to sweep through the Lower 48.

The core of the cold air pool is still -47°F on March 14th, which is amazing.

Days 8 to 15 | 850-mb Temperature Anomaly

Long time to watch this “Arctic blast” unfold — hopefully it will be a glancing blow.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

Probability of at least 3” of Snowfall Next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

Coldest Days are 11 to 15 east of the Rockies

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 4 - March 8

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 8 - March 12

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 13 - March 17

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