{ "number": 888, "headline": "March 4, 2026 Wednesday Weather Update", "standfirst": "Exceptional warmth will set many records with 70s and 80s across Eastern US", "desk": "record", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-05", "published": "2026-03-05T01:18:26.782000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

Daily High Temperatures to Friday, March 13th.

\"\"

Spring like warmth continues into next week with only minor/brief interludes from passing cold fronts and storm systems.

Lows for the next 8-days \u2014 through Friday morning the 13th.

\"\"

Very mild eastern U.S. for next 7-days with southerly flow, and then we will see (hopefully) winter\u2019s final Arctic blast move through the Lower 48 for middle March.

This is post number 888: Good Evening! Day 63 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps.

Subscribe now

Friday\u2019s Record Highs \u2014 70s into Chicago and 80s to Nashville!

\"\"

Boatloads of precipitation / heavy rainfall for next 7-days+

\"\"

Upwards of 4\u201dof rainfall from Texas to Ohio River Valley.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014> Much above normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 with warm, southerly flow. The coldest Arctic air across Canada is eroded with help from the Pacific leaving Alaska as the main source of cold pool formation. That cool air dips into the Pacific Northwest into middle of next week.

\"\"

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

\"\"

Interesting cut-off low spins off the coast of Baja California next week, but doesn\u2019t do much.

Arctic air cannot make much progress against the southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico, remaining largely locked up in Canada for the next 7-9 days.

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 12z)

\"\"

Next week or so, multiple surges of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enhanced by storm systems = heavy rain and thunderstorms (severe weather) across the central Plains and eastward \u2014 \u201cring of fire\u201d around subtropical ridge / Bermuda High.

Pacific moisture also introduced to the upper-level pattern for southern Canada, and the Pacific Northwest.

Weather into Thursday morning \u2014 slight chance of severe weather along a frontal boundary from Dallas to St. Louis with heavy rain in Southern Indiana and Ohio.

\"\"

Slow moving thunderstorms with locally flooding rains over DFW this evening on radar through 6:20 CT

\"\"

HRRR Simulated Radar into Thursday morning 11 AM ET

\"\"

Rain and thunderstorms into Thursday morning \u2026 some of which could be heavy but only a slight chance of severe storms.

Convective Outlook through 7 AM Thursday

\"\"

Weather On Thursday \u2014 winter weather in the Northeast again!

\"\"

Slight chance of severe weather from Lubbock to Wichita on Thursday

\"\"

HRRR 18z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Friday 1 PM ET

\"\"

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 6:45 PM ET

\"\"

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 6:45 PM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 is a whopping 10.0\u00b0F above normal

Low Temperatures on Thursday

\"\"

Only 32 million below freezing mainly New England

\"\"

High Temperatures on Thursday

\"\"

150 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 54 million at least 80\u00b0F

Highs on Friday

\"\"

Even more \u2014 183 million at least 70\u00b0F and 79 million > 80\u00b0F

High Temperatures on Saturday

\"\"

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Saturday Afternoon

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Saturday afternoon

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

\"\"

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

\"\"

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

\"\"

Still watching the middle of next week for the entire Polar Vortex shifts/stretches southward closer to the Canadian border with potential for \u201clobes\u201d of cold Arctic air \u2014 even for mid-March \u2014 to sweep through the Lower 48.

The core of the cold air pool is still -47\u00b0F on March 14th, which is amazing.

Days 8 to 15 | 850-mb Temperature Anomaly

\"\"

Long time to watch this \u201cArctic blast\u201d unfold \u2014 hopefully it will be a glancing blow.

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

\"\"

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 12z | Next 15-days

\"\"

Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 15-days

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z Ensemble Mean Flagship

\"\"

Coldest Days are 11 to 15 east of the Rockies

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 4 - March 8

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 8 - March 12

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 13 - March 17

\"\"

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS. NOAA WPC and SPC for fronts/convective outlooks.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Spring like warmth continues into next week with only minor/brief interludes from passing cold fronts and storm systems.

Lows for the next 8-days \u2014 through Friday morning the 13th.

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/march-4-2026-wednesday-weather-update" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "189938051.march-4-2026-wednesday-weather-update", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/march-4-2026-wednesday-weather-update", "slug": "march-4-2026-wednesday-weather-update", "path": "/mp/888/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/888/", "desk_label": "The Record", "digest": "ab5c88dc8e5b4b5c6d6b9f0e191f66dcdd20b33bcc736d78299b27fc5eaa362e" }