High Temperatures Next 8-days — to Tuesday, March 10th.

Arctic air is in retreat — finally — and warmth in the 60s and 70s, and even 80s takes over the Eastern U.S. for the next 7-8 days until the risk of Canadian cold increases into middle March. Thankfully we are turning the corner on this long winter.

Warm Lows in the 60s across the Southeast due to Gulf moisture flow!

It’s too soon to foreclose the potential for a mid-March frost/freeze for gardens across the Southeast as a “cold blast” looks poised to crash east of the Mississippi in ~10-days. False spring is always a threat with such early March warmth — not unusual — as long as a hard freeze doesn’t wait until end of the month.

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days —> Much above normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 with warm, southerly flow. The coldest Arctic air across Canada is eroded with help from the Pacific leaving Alaska as the main source of cold pool formation.

Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

Surge of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico envelops the eastern U.S. well into the Great Lakes before the next cold front returns late winter chill across the northern tier.

An impressive atmospheric river impacts Alaskan panhandle and western Canada = heavy moisture and warmer air.

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 00z)

Next week or so, multiple surges of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enhanced by storm systems = heavy rain and thunderstorms (severe weather) across the central Plains and eastward — “ring of fire” around subtropical ridge / Bermuda High.

Pacific moisture also introduced to the upper-level pattern for southern Canada.

Weather Today — still some winter leftover before the warm front arrives

Light snowfall and some winter mix across the Mid-Atlantic including Washington D.C. with minimal accumulations. Temperatures will remain in the 30s.

Weather On Tuesday —> warm front inches closer but still winter weather in mid-Atlantic and Northeast

HRRR 12z — Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Wednesday 7 AM ET

The warm front with leading snow and wintry mix (freezing rain) will surge into the Northeast through Tuesday but change over to rain. Need to wait 36-48 hours before ditching Winter across New England — at least temporarily.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:30 AM ET

RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 9:30 AM ET

Lower 48 is 4.0°F above normal but the Northeast is cold

High Temperatures Today — Monday

Easy to see the warm front separating the seasons across Tennessee with the wedge in the Carolinas. New England remains below freezing on Monday.

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

Still 105 million below freezing — coldest morning for a while in Northeast

High Temperatures on Tuesday

132 Million at least 70°F and 60 million at least 80°F with improvement in Great Lakes and Northeast above freezing

High Temperatures on Friday — Look Ahead to Spring Warmth

Washington D.C. Next 10-days

New York City Next 10-days

Boston Next 10-days

Atlanta Next 10-days

Chicago Next 10-days

NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Morning

Moisture from Gulf — around the high pressure anchored over the Southeast.

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — through Friday evening

ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

A more significant storm system with low pressure in the 990s may form in the central Plains and head into Great Lakes this weekend with winter weather — colder air behind the cold front — and heavy rain in the (very) warm sector.

Western U.S. Storm Systems — next 6-days

Storm track well into Alaska and Canada with powerful high pressure — large and in charge — redirecting moisture/atmospheric rivers northward. However, some moisture will dip into Pacific Northwest and northern California to extend into the Rockies and Great Basin.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

Alas, we are NOT done with winter yet? Polar vortex lobe — a strong one — dips into the central U.S.

Days 10 and 15 | 850-mb Temperature Anomaly

Bleh — this would be a significant “Arctic blast” for March 12-17 (Days 10-15)

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 00z | Next 10-days

Probability of at least 3” of Snowfall Next 10-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean Flagship

Warmth breaks down by March 11-12 or Days 9-12 — return of harsh Arctic cold — even for mid-March can be impactful

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 2 - March 6

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 7 - March 11

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 12 - March 16

Canada is back into the Deep Freeze!

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