{ "number": 886, "headline": "March 2, 2026 Monday Weather Update", "standfirst": "A week of (False) Spring across the Eastern U.S. before Arctic blast in 10-days", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-03-02", "published": "2026-03-02T15:55:08.645000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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High Temperatures Next 8-days \u2014 to Tuesday, March 10th.

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Arctic air is in retreat \u2014 finally \u2014 and warmth in the 60s and 70s, and even 80s takes over the Eastern U.S. for the next 7-8 days until the risk of Canadian cold increases into middle March. Thankfully we are turning the corner on this long winter.

Warm Lows in the 60s across the Southeast due to Gulf moisture flow!

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It\u2019s too soon to foreclose the potential for a mid-March frost/freeze for gardens across the Southeast as a \u201ccold blast\u201d looks poised to crash east of the Mississippi in ~10-days. False spring is always a threat with such early March warmth \u2014 not unusual \u2014 as long as a hard freeze doesn\u2019t wait until end of the month.

This is post number 886: Good Morning! Day 61 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily via email or the Substack App, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber \u2014 ALL content is generated by Ryan (not A.I.) including the maps. Coupon code for upgrade to annual subscriptions.

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Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days \u2014> Much above normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48 with warm, southerly flow. The coldest Arctic air across Canada is eroded with help from the Pacific leaving Alaska as the main source of cold pool formation.

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Next 6-days of Precipitable Water (my favorite parameter)

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Surge of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico envelops the eastern U.S. well into the Great Lakes before the next cold front returns late winter chill across the northern tier.

An impressive atmospheric river impacts Alaskan panhandle and western Canada = heavy moisture and warmer air.

Next 12-days of Integrated Vapor Transport (ECMWF 00z)

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Next week or so, multiple surges of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enhanced by storm systems = heavy rain and thunderstorms (severe weather) across the central Plains and eastward \u2014 \u201cring of fire\u201d around subtropical ridge / Bermuda High.

Pacific moisture also introduced to the upper-level pattern for southern Canada.

Weather Today \u2014 still some winter leftover before the warm front arrives

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Light snowfall and some winter mix across the Mid-Atlantic including Washington D.C. with minimal accumulations. Temperatures will remain in the 30s.

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Weather On Tuesday \u2014> warm front inches closer but still winter weather in mid-Atlantic and Northeast

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HRRR 12z \u2014 Radar Simulation Next 48-hours to Wednesday 7 AM ET

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The warm front with leading snow and wintry mix (freezing rain) will surge into the Northeast through Tuesday but change over to rain. Need to wait 36-48 hours before ditching Winter across New England \u2014 at least temporarily.

RTMA Current Temperature Analysis | 9:30 AM ET

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RTMA Current Temperature Anomaly Analysis | 9:30 AM ET

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Lower 48 is 4.0\u00b0F above normal but the Northeast is cold

High Temperatures Today \u2014 Monday

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Easy to see the warm front separating the seasons across Tennessee with the wedge in the Carolinas. New England remains below freezing on Monday.

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Low Temperatures on Tuesday

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Still 105 million below freezing \u2014 coldest morning for a while in Northeast

High Temperatures on Tuesday

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132 Million at least 70\u00b0F and 60 million at least 80\u00b0F with improvement in Great Lakes and Northeast above freezing

High Temperatures on Friday \u2014 Look Ahead to Spring Warmth

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Washington D.C. Next 10-days

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New York City Next 10-days

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Boston Next 10-days

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Atlanta Next 10-days

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Chicago Next 10-days

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NDFD NWS Total Precipitation Next 72-hours through Thursday Morning

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Moisture from Gulf \u2014 around the high pressure anchored over the Southeast.

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 through Friday evening

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ECMWF 06z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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A more significant storm system with low pressure in the 990s may form in the central Plains and head into Great Lakes this weekend with winter weather \u2014 colder air behind the cold front \u2014 and heavy rain in the (very) warm sector.

Western U.S. Storm Systems \u2014 next 6-days

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Storm track well into Alaska and Canada with powerful high pressure \u2014 large and in charge \u2014 redirecting moisture/atmospheric rivers northward. However, some moisture will dip into Pacific Northwest and northern California to extend into the Rockies and Great Basin.

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF AIFS 06z | Temperature at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Alas, we are NOT done with winter yet? Polar vortex lobe \u2014 a strong one \u2014 dips into the central U.S.

Days 10 and 15 | 850-mb Temperature Anomaly

Bleh \u2014 this would be a significant \u201cArctic blast\u201d for March 12-17 (Days 10-15)

ECMWF AIFS 06z | Height Anomaly at 500 mb | Next 10-days

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Snowfall | Median of ECMWF Ensembles at 00z | Next 10-days

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Probability of at least 3\u201d of Snowfall Next 10-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z Ensemble Mean Flagship

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Warmth breaks down by March 11-12 or Days 9-12 \u2014 return of harsh Arctic cold \u2014 even for mid-March can be impactful

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | March 2 - March 6

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | March 7 - March 11

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | March 12 - March 16

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Canada is back into the Deep Freeze!

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

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Arctic air is in retreat \u2014 finally \u2014 and warmth in the 60s and 70s, and even 80s takes over the Eastern U.S. for the next 7-8 days until the risk of Canadian cold increases into middle March. Thankfully we are turning the corner on this long winter.

Warm Lows in the 60s across the Southeast due to Gulf moisture flow!

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