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Invest 95L is expected to develop [90% next 7-days] into a tropical depression and then intensify into a major hurricane by end of coming week. Gert and Katia are ending their lifecycles and will dissipate on Monday.

2023 Medium Range Atlantic Tropics

Invest 95L is lit up with the red hatching for high chance (90%) of development in the next 2-7 days. Models area all on board with significant intensification.

HAFS-A and HAFS-B in the 940s and 950s with central pressure = major hurricane on a track to miss the Leeward Islands.

The global models ECMWF and GFS are both major hurricane intensity and on a track expected to recruve out to sea. We’ll look at the ECMWF ensembles from 12z next.

All tracks are abruptly turned out to sea. Of course, this is at least 5-7 days away before we can probably confidently determine the final outcome of Major Hurricane Lee.

Atlantic 2023 Year to Date | ACE: 55 (153% normal | 36)

Unnamed Subtropical Storm [January 2023]

Arlene 02L: 35 knots, Bret 03L: 60 knots, Cindy 04L: 50 knots

Don 05L: 65 knots, Emily 07L: 45 knots, Franklin 08L: 130 knots

Gert 06L: 40+ knots, Harold 09L: 45-knots, Idalia: 115-knots

Jose: 50-knots, Katia: tropical storm, Lee and Margot are next

2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Area of low pressure likely to develop later next week, but no impacts to land are expected.

Eastern Pacific 2023 | Year to Date ACE 106 (130% of normal | 81)

Adrian 01E: 90 knots, Beatriz 02E: 75 knots, Calvin 03E: 110 knots

Four 04E: 30 knots, Dora 05E: 125 knots, Eugene 06E: 60 knots

Fernanda 07E: 115 knots, Greg 08E: 45 knots

Hilary 09E: 125 knots, Irwin 10E: 40 knots

2023 Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon Haikui (10W) made landfall on Taiwan as a major Category 3 storm and the inner-core was obliterated by the mountainous terrain. Haikui may retain Typhoon status prior to landfall in China in about 36-hours.

Western Pacific Typhoon 2023 YTD ACE: 210 (152% normal | 138)

Sanvu 01W: 30 knots, Mawar 02W: 160 knots, Guchol 03W: 90 knots

Talim 04W: 85 knots, Doksuri 05W: 130 knots, Khanun 06W: 120 knots

Lan 07W: 115 knots, Damrey 08W: 65 knots, Saola 09W: 135 knots

Haikui 10W: typhoon, Kirogi 11W: tropical storm

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