{ "number": 88, "headline": "September 3, 2023 Hurricane Season", "standfirst": "Invest 95L high chance of development into likely major hurricane", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2023-09-03", "published": "2023-09-03T21:14:38.079000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Invest 95L is expected to develop [90% next 7-days] into a tropical depression and then intensify into a major hurricane by end of coming week. Gert and Katia are ending their lifecycles and will dissipate on Monday.

2023 Medium Range Atlantic Tropics

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Invest 95L is lit up with the red hatching for high chance (90%) of development in the next 2-7 days. Models area all on board with significant intensification.

HAFS-A and HAFS-B in the 940s and 950s with central pressure = major hurricane on a track to miss the Leeward Islands.

The global models ECMWF and GFS are both major hurricane intensity and on a track expected to recruve out to sea. We\u2019ll look at the ECMWF ensembles from 12z next.

All tracks are abruptly turned out to sea. Of course, this is at least 5-7 days away before we can probably confidently determine the final outcome of Major Hurricane Lee.

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ECMWF EPS 12z | weathermodels.com
Atlantic 2023 Year to Date | ACE: 55 (153% normal | 36)
Unnamed Subtropical Storm [January 2023]
Arlene 02L: 35 knots, Bret 03L: 60 knots, Cindy 04L: 50 knots
Don 05L: 65 knots, Emily 07L: 45 knots, Franklin 08L: 130 knots
Gert 06L: 40+ knots, Harold 09L: 45-knots, Idalia: 115-knots
Jose: 50-knots, Katia: tropical storm, Lee and Margot are next

2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

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Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Area of low pressure likely to develop later next week, but no impacts to land are expected.

Eastern Pacific 2023 | Year to Date ACE 106 (130% of normal | 81)
Adrian 01E: 90 knots, Beatriz 02E: 75 knots, Calvin 03E: 110 knots
Four 04E: 30 knots, Dora 05E: 125 knots, Eugene 06E: 60 knots
Fernanda 07E: 115 knots, Greg 08E: 45 knots
Hilary 09E: 125 knots, Irwin 10E: 40 knots

2023 Western Pacific Typhoon Season

Typhoon Haikui (10W) made landfall on Taiwan as a major Category 3 storm and the inner-core was obliterated by the mountainous terrain. Haikui may retain Typhoon status prior to landfall in China in about 36-hours.

Western Pacific Typhoon 2023 YTD ACE: 210 (152% normal | 138)

Sanvu 01W: 30 knots, Mawar 02W: 160 knots, Guchol 03W: 90 knots
Talim 04W: 85 knots, Doksuri 05W: 130 knots, Khanun 06W: 120 knots
Lan 07W: 115 knots, Damrey 08W: 65 knots, Saola 09W: 135 knots
Haikui 10W: typhoon, Kirogi 11W: tropical storm

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", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Thank you to all supporters and subscribers! I received a nice banner for paid subscribers in the 100s. Of course, that means one more than 100, but for the first month, that support is fantastic. There are > 2,000 free subscribers and about 55% email open-rate. I do not get much traction from X/Twitter due to Elon\u2019s link squashing, so growth is organic. Based upon number of posts, the cost is about 15 cents per update.

Invest 95L is expected to develop [ 90% next 7-days ] into a tropical depression and then intensify into a major hurricane by end of coming week. Gert and Katia are ending their lifecycles and will dissipate on Monday.

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