Southern Storm System: Radar Simulation next 48-hours — through 7 PM Sunday

Slight risk severe weather from squall line (wind, hail, isolated tornado) through Houston to near New Orleans late Saturday into Sunday

This storm system then develops off the Mid-Atlantic and intensifies out to sea. Early Monday, enough cold air and moisture could be co-located from Philadelphia to New York City to produce some light snowfall — maybe an inch, at least according to this model. The limiting factors are lack of cold air and just the fringe moisture of the storm system. Next 6-days storm systems:

GFS 18z shows this light snowfall on the precipitation type map late Sunday into Monday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this bump up to 2” to 4” tomorrow, but we won’t see the “big ticket” snowfall — and that was a tiny % chance anyways.

Major Storm System for California — moisture blasts onshore for huge mountain snow: Sunday through next week — unsettled with colder air and moisture continuing to surge southward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Major rainfall + snowfall for California especially, but also into the Great Basin and Rockies. Very welcome news for the winter deprived!

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

Can’t ask for much more precipitation in an upcoming 10-day period!

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

The Great Lakes and Northeast snowfall is for later next week — not this weekend.

Snowfall in the Sierra, Cascades, and Rockies will be measured in feet and by the yard stick.

Highs through next Sunday (Feb 22) much above normal

Not seeing any major Arctic blasts through next weekend.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

Storm system across Texas into the Southeast from Saturday - Monday transfers to a new low pressure center further north off mid-Atlantic, and out into the Atlantic it goes.

Dallas Fort Worth Next 7-days — into the 80s next week

Chicago 7-day Forecast — remains mild with 60°F on Monday

New York City 7-Day Forecast: upper-40s next week

Washington D.C. 7-Day Forecast: 50s again on Saturday will feel like a heat wave, and then 60°F next week should melt much of the remaining snow piles

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

Moisture from the Pacific storm system surges northward with the jet stream into Southern Canada — and fuels a “northern tier” boundary —> accumulating snow from the Dakotas into Great Lakes and Northeast from Tues-Thurs

ECMWF 18z Snowfall | Next 6-days

Could be significant accumulation of a large swath from Calgary to near Minneapolis, through Toronto and into New England.

15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS Last 2 Cycles (12z) and (18z)

Winter is not over by any stretch of the imagination.

Total through 15-days — still seeing “big ticket” snowfalls showing up in the Northeast and Midwest and Great Lakes in the long-range through the end of February. However, this is just one scenario out of hundreds/thousands in the coming week(s) but useful for long-range “pattern” diagnosis.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Monday evening

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

Avg Lower 48 temperature was 46.3°F — about 64 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 6.2°F

Low Temperatures on Saturday

34.7°F average Lower 48 minimum - 153 million below freezing

High Temperatures Saturday

60 million above 70°F … even a handful above 90°F in South Texas.

Sunday Morning Low Temperatures

About 100 million below freezing with coldest air in New England

High Temperatures on Sunday

Aside from New England where some folks are below freezing, the rest of the Lower 48 is quite mild for mid-February with 60s into South Dakota and Minnesota.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the “polar vortex” across North America with the coldest pool at -50°C (pink) with the -25°C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February —> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle

Short Range | Ensemble Median next 5-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 12z)

Long Range | Ensemble Median next 15-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 12z)

Probability of 1-inch of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

Probability of 6-inches of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 13 - Feb 17

Over 24°F above normal for upper Midwest for a 5-day chunk

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 18 - Feb 22

13°F + above normal anomaly in the Midwest centered upon Missouri and Memphis

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 23 - Feb 27

Above normal warmth intensity has bumped up to +7°F in the center of the Lower 48 — continue to see the looming / huge cold pool over Western Canada + cooler air across California … zooming out to see it (note the map projection is flat) for nearing the end of February. This has remained stuck and on the horizon for a week now.

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