{ "number": 868, "headline": "February 13, 2026 Friday Evening Update", "standfirst": "Squall line along Gulf coast will bring heavy rain and slight risk of severe weather", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-02-14", "published": "2026-02-14T02:35:36.666000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 868: Good Evening! \u2014> Day 44 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Southern Storm System: Radar Simulation next 48-hours \u2014 through 7 PM Sunday

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Slight risk severe weather from squall line (wind, hail, isolated tornado) through Houston to near New Orleans late Saturday into Sunday

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This storm system then develops off the Mid-Atlantic and intensifies out to sea. Early Monday, enough cold air and moisture could be co-located from Philadelphia to New York City to produce some light snowfall \u2014 maybe an inch, at least according to this model. The limiting factors are lack of cold air and just the fringe moisture of the storm system. Next 6-days storm systems:

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GFS 18z shows this light snowfall on the precipitation type map late Sunday into Monday. I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see this bump up to 2\u201d to 4\u201d tomorrow, but we won\u2019t see the \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowfall \u2014 and that was a tiny % chance anyways.

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Major Storm System for California \u2014 moisture blasts onshore for huge mountain snow: Sunday through next week \u2014 unsettled with colder air and moisture continuing to surge southward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Major rainfall + snowfall for California especially, but also into the Great Basin and Rockies. Very welcome news for the winter deprived!

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Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

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Can\u2019t ask for much more precipitation in an upcoming 10-day period!

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

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The Great Lakes and Northeast snowfall is for later next week \u2014 not this weekend.

Snowfall in the Sierra, Cascades, and Rockies will be measured in feet and by the yard stick.

Weather Trader is an entirely reader-supported publication into its 3rd year. To receive all new posts daily, and support our work, consider becoming a paid subscriber. All content is generated by the author (not A.I.) including the maps.

Highs through next Sunday (Feb 22) much above normal

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Not seeing any major Arctic blasts through next weekend.

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Storm system across Texas into the Southeast from Saturday - Monday transfers to a new low pressure center further north off mid-Atlantic, and out into the Atlantic it goes.

Dallas Fort Worth Next 7-days \u2014 into the 80s next week

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Chicago 7-day Forecast \u2014 remains mild with 60\u00b0F on Monday

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New York City 7-Day Forecast: upper-40s next week

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Washington D.C. 7-Day Forecast: 50s again on Saturday will feel like a heat wave, and then 60\u00b0F next week should melt much of the remaining snow piles

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ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

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Moisture from the Pacific storm system surges northward with the jet stream into Southern Canada \u2014 and fuels a \u201cnorthern tier\u201d boundary \u2014> accumulating snow from the Dakotas into Great Lakes and Northeast from Tues-Thurs

ECMWF 18z Snowfall | Next 6-days

Could be significant accumulation of a large swath from Calgary to near Minneapolis, through Toronto and into New England.

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15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS Last 2 Cycles (12z) and (18z)

Winter is not over by any stretch of the imagination.

Total through 15-days \u2014 still seeing \u201cbig ticket\u201d snowfalls showing up in the Northeast and Midwest and Great Lakes in the long-range through the end of February. However, this is just one scenario out of hundreds/thousands in the coming week(s) but useful for long-range \u201cpattern\u201d diagnosis.

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NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days through Monday evening

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RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 7:45 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 46.3\u00b0F \u2014 about 64 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:45 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 6.2\u00b0F

Low Temperatures on Saturday

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34.7\u00b0F average Lower 48 minimum - 153 million below freezing

High Temperatures Saturday

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60 million above 70\u00b0F \u2026 even a handful above 90\u00b0F in South Texas.

Sunday Morning Low Temperatures

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About 100 million below freezing with coldest air in New England

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High Temperatures on Sunday

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Aside from New England where some folks are below freezing, the rest of the Lower 48 is quite mild for mid-February with 60s into South Dakota and Minnesota.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir remains largely locked up over Canada north of the Arctic Circle

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Short Range | Ensemble Median next 5-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 12z)

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Long Range | Ensemble Median next 15-days Total Snowfall (ECMWF EPS 12z)

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Probability of 1-inch of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

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Probability of 6-inches of snowfall from the Ensembles (12z)

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 13 - Feb 17

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Over 24\u00b0F above normal for upper Midwest for a 5-day chunk

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 18 - Feb 22

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13\u00b0F + above normal anomaly in the Midwest centered upon Missouri and Memphis

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 23 - Feb 27

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Above normal warmth intensity has bumped up to +7\u00b0F in the center of the Lower 48 \u2014 continue to see the looming / huge cold pool over Western Canada + cooler air across California \u2026 zooming out to see it (note the map projection is flat) for nearing the end of February. This has remained stuck and on the horizon for a week now.

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, and NOAA GFS/GEFS.

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Southern Storm System: Radar Simulation next 48-hours \u2014 through 7 PM Sunday

Slight risk severe weather from squall line (wind, hail, isolated tornado) through Houston to near New Orleans late Saturday into Sunday

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