Elephant in the Room: Presidents’ Day Blockbuster Storm — or Complete Bust?

Yet another 12z ECMWF cycle delivered a major Nor’easter for heavy interior New England snowfall — but the track from Days 6-8 is uncertain. As we’ll see from AIFS 18z later in the post, a track due east off the Carolina coast and out to sea is a possibility.

The ECMWF HRES model has shown many “big ticket” snow storms in the past few days but has not zeroed in on a solution instead scattering the systems around the map. Not much to do but wait … we’re at about 1 in 4 chance of a “jackpot” for Boston and NYC

24-Hour Snowfall from all of the Ensembles for NYC and Boston show “big ticket” opportunities centered on Feb 16-17, but also many “blanks” so we can condition the event as “if it happens, then it could be big” — note this is why ensemble means don’t work when you average huge totals with non-events.

Headlines this Monday Evening:

• Arctic air is on hiatus this week for vast majority of Lower 48 — hoping the Northeast can ditch the cold at least for a few days to thaw out

• Pattern change — more western moisture (and cold) + subtropical jet stream loads up Southeast with welcome rain (much warmer, too) —> Jet Stream dipping down the U.S. West Coast into the Southwest — and then across the Lower 48 = much warmer pattern, but also the potential for storm systems to “catch fire” and phase with the jet along the way —> develop into Nor’easters

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

• Central U.S. warmth pushes east but is beaten back by a trough this weekend!

• But, another warming event may finally blanket the U.S. east of the Rockies with above normal temperatures around Day 8 or February 17th.

• Pattern change with VERY intense cold pool reforming over Alaska and Northwest Canada — like we saw a few weeks ago, and troughs dipping down the U.S. West coast — great for snowfall in the mountains and much colder temperatures.

• Will this huge cold pool break loose into the Lower 48? Eventually, looks like it.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

• A weak trough dips out of Canada (grey coloring = dry) into the Great Lakes and Northeast into this weekend to put a break on the warming.

• A storm system forms in the central U.S. with a moisture plume out of the Gulf of Mexico — this is an early “severe weather season” for the southern U.S. from Texas to Florida — typical of mid-February.

• Atmospheric rivers “tickling” California with moisture — not major bombardments but enough to keep the rain bucket filling and the snow falling on the mountains.

• This model stops at Day 6 — so this is the situation with the storm system in the Southern U.S. co-located with a mobile trough that dips down from the Gulf of Alaska like a bowling ball —> where does it go?

Where are you going little guy?

ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days

• The colder Green and Blue (well below normal) disappears for a day or two across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic but returns again this weekend —> back to “colder”

• Warm —> RED across the western U.S. into the Plains pushes eastward on Tuesday. The entire central part of North America from Texas to Canada is much warmer than normal — a welcome change from the “Polar Vortex”

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type + Intensity | Next 6-days

• Another weak Clipper system next Tues-Wed across Great Lakes into Northeast, that should deliver significant snow to Ontario and then into northern New England.

• Heavy rain and snow returns to the Pacific Northwest, and moisture heads into the Great Basin primarily from a secondary storm system right into California on Wednesday

• Central U.S. storm system gathers on Sat/Sun and tracks from Oklahoma into the Great Lakes with a moisture laden cold front = thunderstorms. Thankfully, not snowfall across the Southern U.S. as model solutions “scare-casted” over the past few days.

West Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

Weak but coherent storm system landfalls central California on Wednesday with a burst of rainfall across the entire state and snowfall at higher elevations. This is coming out of the Southwest, so warmer system + higher snow elevations.

Then, we change the direction of upper-level flow generally out of the north from the Gulf of Alaska = cooler, more unsettled into the weekend

East Coast USA Zoom | Next 6-days

Only show in town here is a Clipper system through Canada into tomorrow and Wednesday with a quick burst of snow for Ontario and New England.

ECMWF AIFS 18z — NOT a believer in a Presidents’ Day snowstorm for the Northeast

15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z

HRRR Simulated Radar Next 48-hours

Clipper system performs quite well — look at all of the snowfall for Ontario then extending into New York and New England. Boston may get swiped with 3” or 4”

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

NWS has ~3” for Boston

Snowfall in the Sierra again!

NWS NDFD Precipitation (QPF) next 3-days

RTMA | Temperature Analysis | 8:00 PM ET

Avg Lower 48 temperature was 46.2°F — only 95.5 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 PM ET

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 7.6°F

Low Temperatures on Tuesday

34.2°F average Lower 48 minimum - 144M below freezing and only 210K below 0°F

High Temperatures Tuesday

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the “polar vortex” across North America with the coldest pool at -50°C (pink) with the -25°C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

Heading into the final week of February —> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir is full loaded but well to the north over Arctic Canada. Let’s hope it stays there!

Multiple troughs into the Pacific Northwest try to pull that cold PV air southward.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | 500 mb Height Anomaly Next 10-days

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 9 - Feb 13

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 14 - Feb 18

Huge 20°F + above normal anomaly in the Midwest

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 19 - Feb 23

10°F above normal warmth in the center of the Lower 48 but a huge cold pool looming over Western Canada, and cooler air across California.

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