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This is post number 864: Good Evening! Quick update of the maps and to get the Presidents\u2019 Day potential storm system on the radar screen \u2014 Day 40 of 2026.
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)
Elephant in the Room: Presidents\u2019 Day Blockbuster Storm \u2014 or Complete Bust?
Yet another 12z ECMWF cycle delivered a major Nor\u2019easter for heavy interior New England snowfall \u2014 but the track from Days 6-8 is uncertain. As we\u2019ll see from AIFS 18z later in the post, a track due east off the Carolina coast and out to sea is a possibility.
The ECMWF HRES model has shown many \u201cbig ticket\u201d snow storms in the past few days but has not zeroed in on a solution instead scattering the systems around the map. Not much to do but wait \u2026 we\u2019re at about 1 in 4 chance of a \u201cjackpot\u201d for Boston and NYC
24-Hour Snowfall from all of the Ensembles for NYC and Boston show \u201cbig ticket\u201d opportunities centered on Feb 16-17, but also many \u201cblanks\u201d so we can condition the event as \u201cif it happens, then it could be big\u201d \u2014 note this is why ensemble means don\u2019t work when you average huge totals with non-events.
About 1 in 4 chance of a \u201cbig ticket\u201d snow storm for the Northeast next Sunday - Monday but no model consensus (yet)
Headlines this Monday Evening:
Arctic air is on hiatus this week for vast majority of Lower 48 \u2014 hoping the Northeast can ditch the cold at least for a few days to thaw out
Pattern change \u2014 more western moisture (and cold) + subtropical jet stream loads up Southeast with welcome rain (much warmer, too) \u2014> Jet Stream dipping down the U.S. West Coast into the Southwest \u2014 and then across the Lower 48 = much warmer pattern, but also the potential for storm systems to \u201ccatch fire\u201d and phase with the jet along the way \u2014> develop into Nor\u2019easters
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Central U.S. warmth pushes east but is beaten back by a trough this weekend!
But, another warming event may finally blanket the U.S. east of the Rockies with above normal temperatures around Day 8 or February 17th.
Pattern change with VERY intense cold pool reforming over Alaska and Northwest Canada \u2014 like we saw a few weeks ago, and troughs dipping down the U.S. West coast \u2014 great for snowfall in the mountains and much colder temperatures.
Will this huge cold pool break loose into the Lower 48? Eventually, looks like it.
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A weak trough dips out of Canada (grey coloring = dry) into the Great Lakes and Northeast into this weekend to put a break on the warming.
A storm system forms in the central U.S. with a moisture plume out of the Gulf of Mexico \u2014 this is an early \u201csevere weather season\u201d for the southern U.S. from Texas to Florida \u2014 typical of mid-February.
Atmospheric rivers \u201ctickling\u201d California with moisture \u2014 not major bombardments but enough to keep the rain bucket filling and the snow falling on the mountains.
This model stops at Day 6 \u2014 so this is the situation with the storm system in the Southern U.S. co-located with a mobile trough that dips down from the Gulf of Alaska like a bowling ball \u2014> where does it go?
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Where are you going little guy?
ECMWF 18z Temperature Anomaly | Next 6-days
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The colder Green and Blue (well below normal) disappears for a day or two across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic but returns again this weekend \u2014> back to \u201ccolder\u201d
Warm \u2014> RED across the western U.S. into the Plains pushes eastward on Tuesday. The entire central part of North America from Texas to Canada is much warmer than normal \u2014 a welcome change from the \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d
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Another weak Clipper system next Tues-Wed across Great Lakes into Northeast, that should deliver significant snow to Ontario and then into northern New England.
Heavy rain and snow returns to the Pacific Northwest, and moisture heads into the Great Basin primarily from a secondary storm system right into California on Wednesday
Central U.S. storm system gathers on Sat/Sun and tracks from Oklahoma into the Great Lakes with a moisture laden cold front = thunderstorms. Thankfully, not snowfall across the Southern U.S. as model solutions \u201cscare-casted\u201d over the past few days.
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Weak but coherent storm system landfalls central California on Wednesday with a burst of rainfall across the entire state and snowfall at higher elevations. This is coming out of the Southwest, so warmer system + higher snow elevations.
Then, we change the direction of upper-level flow generally out of the north from the Gulf of Alaska = cooler, more unsettled into the weekend
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Only show in town here is a Clipper system through Canada into tomorrow and Wednesday with a quick burst of snow for Ontario and New England.
ECMWF AIFS 18z \u2014 NOT a believer in a Presidents\u2019 Day snowstorm for the Northeast
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15-day Snowfall (Long Range) ECMWF AIFS 18z
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No doubt about heavy snowfall returning to the Western U.S.
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/dc6bff4ddb5af510.gif\")
Clipper system performs quite well \u2014 look at all of the snowfall for Ontario then extending into New York and New England. Boston may get swiped with 3\u201d or 4\u201d
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NWS has ~3\u201d for Boston
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Snowfall in the Sierra again!
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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 46.2\u00b0F \u2014 only 95.5 million below freezing.
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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 7.6\u00b0F
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34.2\u00b0F average Lower 48 minimum - 144M below freezing and only 210K below 0\u00b0F
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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -50\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).
Heading into the final week of February \u2014> the main Polar Vortex cold pool reservoir is full loaded but well to the north over Arctic Canada. Let\u2019s hope it stays there!
Multiple troughs into the Pacific Northwest try to pull that cold PV air southward.
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5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 9 - Feb 13
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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 14 - Feb 18
![\"\"](\"/assets/media/badf9c4d889d6ddc.png\")
Huge 20\u00b0F + above normal anomaly in the Midwest
5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 19 - Feb 23
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10\u00b0F above normal warmth in the center of the Lower 48 but a huge cold pool looming over Western Canada, and cooler air across California.
Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS
", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "Elephant in the Room: Presidents\u2019 Day Blockbuster Storm \u2014 or Complete Bust?
Yet another 12z ECMWF cycle delivered a major Nor\u2019easter for heavy interior New England snowfall \u2014 but the track from Days 6-8 is uncertain. As we\u2019ll see from AIFS 18z later in the post, a track due east off the Carolina coast and out to sea is a possibility.
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