What’s changed with the forecast models this evening?

More snowfall in the Southeast including Atlanta —> Outer Banks of North Carolina but now LESS impact to New England likely foreclosing opportunity for Boston to get another massive snowfall.

The blizzard forms with upper-level interaction with an intense tropopause anomaly or Polar Vortex lobe that dips into the Southeast and carves out a path through the eastern Atlantic triggering ascent and baroclinic energy conversion from the jet stream into the low-pressure system — causing explosive development.

Upcoming Bomb Cyclone — large gyre to with 2 main low pressure centers that undergo a brief binary interaction within the larger upper-level trough (polar vortex) mid-level environment before merging into one center near Maritime Canada.

Truly Massive Cyclone with hurricane force wind gusts over a large area of western Atlantic along and off the East Coast.

Chance to see some snow flurries in Tampa Bay — but not much more than that.

Saturday and Sunday precipitation type:

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MSLP shows the pressure fall quite rapidly ahead of the main upper-level trough or “Polar Vortex” lobe that carves out a path through the Southeast U.S.

Massive wind maker — 850 mb winds show the energy — and potential of blizzard conditions along a long swath of the Atlantic coast from Carolinas to New England.

Maximum Wind Gusts Next 72-hours from National Weather Service

This storm system and weather pattern will usher in very cold air with gusty winds.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

North Carolina — 6” - 9” including Charlotte and Raleigh, and 12” to 15” on the Outer Banks with Blizzard Conditions likely — insane!

Atlanta: 1” at the airport to 3” in Northeast Metro counties and 5” in Greenville on I-85 heading into South Carolina.

Mid-Atlantic will only be clipped — no new snowfall likely in Washington D.C.

New England Snowfall: much less likely to see major accumulations in Boston or along the Cape as in yesterday’s model update — 2” to 4” is a far cry from 24” to 36”, but we’ll try again the following weekend.

Lake Effect Snow Continues (for now) until they freeze over. South end of Lake Michigan still cranking out the snow squalls with perhaps another 6”+ around Gary, Indiana.

RTMA | Morning Temperature Analysis | 6:15 PM ET

Avg Lower 48 temperature was 36.2°F — 157 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 6:15 PM ET

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -2.4°F

Continuing Arctic Cold | Lows next 8-days

Low Temperatures Friday

226 million below freezing — only average of 18.9°F

18% of the Lower 48 is below freezing — area wise — and 65 million population

Coldest in the minus 10s in Michigan, western PA, and even colder upstate NY

High Temperatures Thursday

Still 153 million freezing during day

The Arctic Dry Air doesn’t perfectly drain into South Florida but has a westerly component that includes travel over the warmer (relative) open waters of the Gulf of Mexico

Temperatures will be 25°F to 40°F below normal across the Southeast this weekend.

Sunday Morning Lows from official NWS Forecasts (not the blend of whatever model)

Monday Morning Lows

Orlando 7-day Forecast

Miami 7-day Forecast

Lower 48 Precipitation Next 6-days

Other than the “bomb cyclone” the only active weather is in the Pacific Northwest with a series of atmospheric rivers heading into B.C. Canada.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the “polar vortex” across North America with the coldest pool at -40°C (pink) with the -25°C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

NWS NDFD Precipitation Total Next 72-hours

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

Long Range Snowfall from EPS 12z — Next 15-days Ensemble Median

Variability about median: Magnitude of the Interquartile range (75% minus 25%)

Probability of at least 0.1” snowfall (trace) next 5-days

Probability of at least 1” snowfall next 5-days

Probability of at least 6” snowfall next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 29 - Feb 2

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 3 - Feb 7

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 8 - Feb 12

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