{ "number": 854, "headline": "January 29, 2026 Thursday Winter Storm Update", "standfirst": "Carolinas will see a powerful winter storm with heavy snowfall this weekend", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-30", "published": "2026-01-30T01:30:36.846000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 854: Good Evening and hope everyone is warm wherever you might be! It\u2019s frigid here in Atlanta, and now there is a Winter Storm with snow coming my way. I do have a snow shovel.

Thank you to visitors and new subscribers for your support keeps Weather Trader going. Day 29 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader X @weatherzarr)

What\u2019s changed with the forecast models this evening?

More snowfall in the Southeast including Atlanta \u2014> Outer Banks of North Carolina but now LESS impact to New England likely foreclosing opportunity for Boston to get another massive snowfall.

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GFS 18z Dynamic Tropopause Potential Temperature

The blizzard forms with upper-level interaction with an intense tropopause anomaly or Polar Vortex lobe that dips into the Southeast and carves out a path through the eastern Atlantic triggering ascent and baroclinic energy conversion from the jet stream into the low-pressure system \u2014 causing explosive development.

Upcoming Bomb Cyclone \u2014 large gyre to with 2 main low pressure centers that undergo a brief binary interaction within the larger upper-level trough (polar vortex) mid-level environment before merging into one center near Maritime Canada.

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Truly Massive Cyclone with hurricane force wind gusts over a large area of western Atlantic along and off the East Coast.

Chance to see some snow flurries in Tampa Bay \u2014 but not much more than that.

Saturday and Sunday precipitation type:

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MSLP shows the pressure fall quite rapidly ahead of the main upper-level trough or \u201cPolar Vortex\u201d lobe that carves out a path through the Southeast U.S.

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Massive wind maker \u2014 850 mb winds show the energy \u2014 and potential of blizzard conditions along a long swath of the Atlantic coast from Carolinas to New England.

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Maximum Wind Gusts Next 72-hours from National Weather Service

This storm system and weather pattern will usher in very cold air with gusty winds.

NWS NDFD Snowfall next 3-days

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North Carolina \u2014 6\u201d - 9\u201d including Charlotte and Raleigh, and 12\u201d to 15\u201d on the Outer Banks with Blizzard Conditions likely \u2014 insane!

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Atlanta: 1\u201d at the airport to 3\u201d in Northeast Metro counties and 5\u201d in Greenville on I-85 heading into South Carolina.

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Mid-Atlantic will only be clipped \u2014 no new snowfall likely in Washington D.C.

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New England Snowfall: much less likely to see major accumulations in Boston or along the Cape as in yesterday\u2019s model update \u2014 2\u201d to 4\u201d is a far cry from 24\u201d to 36\u201d, but we\u2019ll try again the following weekend.

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Lake Effect Snow Continues (for now) until they freeze over. South end of Lake Michigan still cranking out the snow squalls with perhaps another 6\u201d+ around Gary, Indiana.

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RTMA | Morning Temperature Analysis | 6:15 PM ET

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Avg Lower 48 temperature was 36.2\u00b0F \u2014 157 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 6:15 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly below normal by -2.4\u00b0F

Continuing Arctic Cold | Lows next 8-days

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Low Temperatures Friday

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226 million below freezing \u2014 only average of 18.9\u00b0F

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18% of the Lower 48 is below freezing \u2014 area wise \u2014 and 65 million population

Coldest in the minus 10s in Michigan, western PA, and even colder upstate NY

High Temperatures Thursday

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Still 153 million freezing during day

The Arctic Dry Air doesn\u2019t perfectly drain into South Florida but has a westerly component that includes travel over the warmer (relative) open waters of the Gulf of Mexico

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Temperatures will be 25\u00b0F to 40\u00b0F below normal across the Southeast this weekend.

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Sunday Morning Lows from official NWS Forecasts (not the blend of whatever model)

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Monday Morning Lows

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Orlando 7-day Forecast

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Miami 7-day Forecast

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Lower 48 Precipitation Next 6-days

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Other than the \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d the only active weather is in the Pacific Northwest with a series of atmospheric rivers heading into B.C. Canada.

ECMWF IFS 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days

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Flagship ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 12-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

NWS NDFD Precipitation Total Next 72-hours

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Long Range Snowfall from EPS 12z \u2014 Next 15-days Ensemble Median

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Variability about median: Magnitude of the Interquartile range (75% minus 25%)

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Probability of at least 0.1\u201d snowfall (trace) next 5-days

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Probability of at least 1\u201d snowfall next 5-days

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Probability of at least 6\u201d snowfall next 15-days

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Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 29 - Feb 2

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 3 - Feb 7

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Feb 8 - Feb 12

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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What\u2019s changed with the forecast models this evening?

More snowfall in the Southeast including Atlanta \u2014> Outer Banks of North Carolina but now LESS impact to New England likely foreclosing opportunity for Boston to get another massive snowfall.

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