Extended Range — Day 15 Global Temperatures (Control and Ensemble Mean)

Not much doubt about a cold continents pattern ahead — with weaker polar vortex dumping out Arctic air onto populations of North America and Asia

Headlines for Upcoming Week

• Colder pattern across Eastern U.S.

• Suspected Nor’easter not coming together

• Canadian Cold Pool reforms once NE Pacific block breaks down = increased risk for more intense cold into end of the month

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

A strong blocking ridge forms over the Pacific Northwest and retrogrades to Alaska finally dislodging the extreme cold pool that has been tormenting the 49th State for weeks. The jet stream will need to go up and over this ridge meaning a dip or weakness in the Great Lakes and Northeast. This allows the “polar vortex” anchored over Hudson Bay to drop multiple lobes or extrusions of “cold pool” air even into the Southeast U.S.

We will watch these “polar vortex” extrusions for surface cyclones that can “catch fire” or phase with the upper-levels through baroclinic instability and blossom into a powerful bomb cyclone. So far, our most reliable modeling (ECMWF) does not show such a scenario.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the “polar vortex” across North America with the coldest pool at -40°C (pink) with the -25°C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The Western U.S. and Pacific Northwest ridge is very apparent and firmly entrenched vs. the Hudson Bay / Arctic Canada undulations are dipping southward into the eastern U.S. = cold.

What happens after Day 10? Holy Moly!

ECMWF 12z drops the hammer and lowers the boom on the Lower 48 with historic cold. We’re talking -40°F in Minneapolis with wind chills across the Midwest and Great Lakes in life threatening range -50s.

Day 15 | ECMWF 12z Flagship Model

Minimum Temperature and Wind Chills —> coldest we’ve seen since 2014.

This is one realization out of hundreds that will arrive in the coming days to determine if this extreme cold for the end of January is legit.

One purpose of this blog — to monitor the model trends and give my two cents about what’s important for folks in the way of extreme weather. You need to know what the flagship European model is saying because everyone else can see it, too. I do not subscribe to censorship or hiding of information.

Where does the Hudson Bay —> Canadian Arctic polar vortex centroid go?

At Day 10, it’s right there waiting for permission to dip southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast along with the massive cold pool

HRRR Next 48-hours Radar | Through Tuesday Afternoon 1 PM ET

A Great Lakes Clipper the only show in town

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

Colder Arctic air dips into the Eastern U.S. by way of the Midwest and Great Lakes in two major waves

ECMWF 12z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

Upper level pattern shuts off the West Coast from atmospheric rivers — and keeps the Gulf of Mexico closed for business.

Not seeing any Nor’easters with East Coast impacts. Cyclones do form but well to the NE over Canada or in the Atlantic.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

Northwesterly flow out of Alberta —> clipper systems into the Great Lakes and Northeast but do not phase too well with the upper-level polar vortex for “bombogenesis”

Eastern U.S. | Close Call for Thursday but system doesn’t catch fire

Powerful 951 mb cyclone over Nova Scotia by late Monday but it moves well way from North America

Beautiful maps valid Monday evening 953 mb … hurricane force winds with blizzard conditions over northeast Canada.

North America Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

Alaska finally warms up! Strong cold front Thursday —> Friday across Eastern U.S.

Friday Morning Lows

Europe Storm Parade continues

ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

Average Lower 48 temperature was 40.7°F with 84 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:30 PM ET

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 4.1°F

Monday Morning Low Temperatures

210 million below freezing — nationwide average of 27.8°F

Monday High Temperatures

Only 37 million at least 70°F —> nationwide average of 48.8°F

Tuesday Morning Low Temperatures

164 million below freezing — nationwide average of 32.0°F

Tuesday High Temperatures

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall Next 6-days

European Winter | Snowfall Next 6-days

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 10-days

Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

Probability of 6-inch or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

Ensemble Median Snowfall for Europe Next 14-days

European Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 and Week 2

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 11 - Jan 15

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 16 - Jan 20

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 21 - Jan 25