{ "number": 838, "headline": "January 11, 2026 Sunday Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Risk of extreme cold increasing in long range ensemble modeling", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2026-01-12", "published": "2026-01-12T02:04:30.231000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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This is post number 838: Good Evening, thank you to more renewing subscribers for Year 2 and 3 (!) \u2014 your generous support keeps this blog going without advertising \u2014 churning out on average 28 posts per month \u2014> Day 11 of 2026.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Extended Range \u2014 Day 15 Global Temperatures (Control and Ensemble Mean)

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Not much doubt about a cold continents pattern ahead \u2014 with weaker polar vortex dumping out Arctic air onto populations of North America and Asia

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Headlines for Upcoming Week

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ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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A strong blocking ridge forms over the Pacific Northwest and retrogrades to Alaska finally dislodging the extreme cold pool that has been tormenting the 49th State for weeks. The jet stream will need to go up and over this ridge meaning a dip or weakness in the Great Lakes and Northeast. This allows the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d anchored over Hudson Bay to drop multiple lobes or extrusions of \u201ccold pool\u201d air even into the Southeast U.S.

We will watch these \u201cpolar vortex\u201d extrusions for surface cyclones that can \u201ccatch fire\u201d or phase with the upper-levels through baroclinic instability and blossom into a powerful bomb cyclone. So far, our most reliable modeling (ECMWF) does not show such a scenario.

ECMWF AIFS-Single 18z | Temperature (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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The temperature at 500 mb is the easiest way to highlight the \u201cpolar vortex\u201d across North America with the coldest pool at -40\u00b0C (pink) with the -25\u00b0C contour usually associated with below freezing temperatures at 2-meters (surface).

The Western U.S. and Pacific Northwest ridge is very apparent and firmly entrenched vs. the Hudson Bay / Arctic Canada undulations are dipping southward into the eastern U.S. = cold.

What happens after Day 10? Holy Moly!

ECMWF 12z drops the hammer and lowers the boom on the Lower 48 with historic cold. We\u2019re talking -40\u00b0F in Minneapolis with wind chills across the Midwest and Great Lakes in life threatening range -50s.

Day 15 | ECMWF 12z Flagship Model

Minimum Temperature and Wind Chills \u2014> coldest we\u2019ve seen since 2014.

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This is one realization out of hundreds that will arrive in the coming days to determine if this extreme cold for the end of January is legit.

One purpose of this blog \u2014 to monitor the model trends and give my two cents about what\u2019s important for folks in the way of extreme weather. You need to know what the flagship European model is saying because everyone else can see it, too. I do not subscribe to censorship or hiding of information.

Where does the Hudson Bay \u2014> Canadian Arctic polar vortex centroid go?

At Day 10, it\u2019s right there waiting for permission to dip southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast along with the massive cold pool

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HRRR Next 48-hours Radar | Through Tuesday Afternoon 1 PM ET

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A Great Lakes Clipper the only show in town

ECMWF 18z | Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My Favorite Parameter

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Colder Arctic air dips into the Eastern U.S. by way of the Midwest and Great Lakes in two major waves

ECMWF 12z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

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Upper level pattern shuts off the West Coast from atmospheric rivers \u2014 and keeps the Gulf of Mexico closed for business.

Not seeing any Nor\u2019easters with East Coast impacts. Cyclones do form but well to the NE over Canada or in the Atlantic.

ECMWF 18z Precipitation Type and Intensity | Next 6-days

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Northwesterly flow out of Alberta \u2014> clipper systems into the Great Lakes and Northeast but do not phase too well with the upper-level polar vortex for \u201cbombogenesis\u201d

Eastern U.S. | Close Call for Thursday but system doesn\u2019t catch fire

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Powerful 951 mb cyclone over Nova Scotia by late Monday but it moves well way from North America

Beautiful maps valid Monday evening 953 mb \u2026 hurricane force winds with blizzard conditions over northeast Canada.

North America Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days

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Alaska finally warms up! Strong cold front Thursday \u2014> Friday across Eastern U.S.

Friday Morning Lows

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Europe Storm Parade continues

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ECMWF 12z EPS | Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

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NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

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RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Average Lower 48 temperature was 40.7\u00b0F with 84 million below freezing.

Temperature Anomaly | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly above normal by 4.1\u00b0F

Monday Morning Low Temperatures

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210 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 27.8\u00b0F

Monday High Temperatures

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Only 37 million at least 70\u00b0F \u2014> nationwide average of 48.8\u00b0F

Tuesday Morning Low Temperatures

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164 million below freezing \u2014 nationwide average of 32.0\u00b0F

Tuesday High Temperatures

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Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total

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Blend of Models v5.0 | Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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ECMWF 18z | Snowfall Next 6-days

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European Winter | Snowfall Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 10-days

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Probability of 1-inch or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

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Probability of 6-inch or more Snowfall in the next 10-days

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Ensemble Median Snowfall for Europe Next 14-days

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European Temperature Anomaly | Week 1 and Week 2

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 11 - Jan 15

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 16 - Jan 20

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Jan 21 - Jan 25

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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Extended Range \u2014 Day 15 Global Temperatures (Control and Ensemble Mean)

Not much doubt about a cold continents pattern ahead \u2014 with weaker polar vortex dumping out Arctic air onto populations of North America and Asia

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