RRFS-A Highest Resolution Snowfall Next 3-days — Monday 1 PM

NYC: 4”

Alberta Clippers + Nor’easter backside snow band = huge population seeing at least 3-inches of snowfall … and up to 8” across a stripe of the Midwest from Des Moines to Indianapolis

HRRR 12z | Next 48-Hours through Sunday7 AM ET

• Snowfall with Alberta Clipper rotates around the Great Lakes … to arrive in the Northeast and intensify as the Low pressure center hits the ocean for a wintry Sunday morning across NYC and New England including the Big Cities.

RRFS-A 06z Radar Simulation | Sunday 4 AM ET

Snowfall could be heavy in a burst of 3-6 hours and add up 3” to 6” — maybe more.

Precipitation Type | Weather Next 6-days | ECMWF 06z

Headlines Friday Morning

1. Alberta Clipper system —> Northeast backside band of moderate to heavy snow into Sunday morning

2. VERY COLD — this weekend across the Midwest/Great Lakes peaking this Sunday with the cold pool flooding into the Southeast for Monday morning.

3. Ridge builds across the Lower 48 from coast-to-coast into Day 10, but questions remain if Christmas is a “blow torch” or the polar vortex can battle back and drop a few [very cold] troughs/lobes into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Weekend “baby” Nor’easter — All snow for land areas — woohoo, but how much QPF is available? 0.4” to 0.5” in NYC but less in Boston. So, 10:1 snow to liquid ratio = sweet spot of 4” to 6” of snowfall.

Current Frontal Boundaries and Weather into Saturday morning

Low Temperatures Next 8-days | Until Saturday, Dec 20th

Warming trend after Monday — well deserved after an abnormally very cold start to December.

Average Temperature Anomaly | December 1-10, 2025

ECMWF 06z Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My favorite parameter

• White colored precipitable water = absence of moisture = cold/polar air mass surges southeast out of Western Canada into the Midwest into this weekend and then into the Southeast early next week.

• Next [major] atmospheric river for West Coast Mon/Tuesday

• Powerful Nor’easter forms from Alberta Clipper Monday — and tracks into the North Atlantic — but won’t bomb out until it moves away from the coast, so we miss out on a blockbuster blizzard but will still see 3”-6” of snowfall.

Temperatures | Current to Next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

Flagship European model ensemble solution for temperature anomaly next 15-days

The Lower 48 settles into a “Blow Torch” much above normal temperature pattern into the weekend after Christmas December 27-28, but eventually this pattern MUST break down, and the Canadian cold pool will find its away back into Lower 48. However, no clear signals about when/how that will happen (yet).

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days | Into Wednesday afternoon

Exceptionally cold air spills into the Midwest and Great Lakes into this weekend, but warmer air from the Southwest and Gulf of Mexico battles back —> Light at the end of the tunnel into middle of next week.

RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

Average Lower 48 temperature was 31.7°F

Still dealing with this brutal inversion layer + fog/mist in the California Central Valley — an ocean of fog with temperatures around 40°F

Temperature Anomaly | 8:45 AM ET

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was 19°F ABOVE normal

Friday High Temperatures

Saturday Low Temperatures

Sunday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast Peak in Midwest + Great Lakes

Frigid across the Midwest —> colder than -20°F over Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas

Sunday Low Temperature Anomaly

Monday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast Peak in Southeast

Monday Low Temperature Anomaly

7-Day Forecast | Chicago

7-Day Forecast | Minneapolis

7-Day Forecast | Atlanta

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

Couple more troughs into next weekend — Days 8-10 … and then the ridge builds across the Rocky Mountains … but notice the subtle trough … as the cold pool can travel downhill into the Great Lakes and Northeast and clip the Lower 48 with brutal Canadian cold. Fine line between warmth / thaw and continued exceptional winter cold into the last 10-days of December.

ECMWF 00z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

Parameter used for monitoring “atmospheric rivers” usually along the U.S. west coast, but the idea works well for many other areas — highlighting midlatitude storm systems with warm conveyor belts (moisture plumes)

ECMWF 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 1” | Next 15-days

We’ll be monitoring the 1” chance of snowfall for a “White Christmas” in the coming weeks. This map is through morning December 26th.

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 3” | Next 15-days

Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean to December 26

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 12 - Dec 16

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 17 - Dec 21

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 22 - Dec 26

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