{ "number": 814, "headline": "December 12, 2025 Friday Morning Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Extreme cold from Midwest blasts into the Southeast by Monday", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-12-12", "published": "2025-12-12T15:05:47.292000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
\"\"

This is post number 814: Good morning to new subscribers and visitors!

Holiday Coupon code 50% off Annual Upgrade \ud83c\udf85

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

RRFS-A Highest Resolution Snowfall Next 3-days \u2014 Monday 1 PM

\"\"

NYC: 4\u201d

Alberta Clippers + Nor\u2019easter backside snow band = huge population seeing at least 3-inches of snowfall \u2026 and up to 8\u201d across a stripe of the Midwest from Des Moines to Indianapolis

\"\"

HRRR 12z | Next 48-Hours through Sunday7 AM ET

\"\"

RRFS-A 06z Radar Simulation | Sunday 4 AM ET

\"\"

Snowfall could be heavy in a burst of 3-6 hours and add up 3\u201d to 6\u201d \u2014 maybe more.

Precipitation Type | Weather Next 6-days | ECMWF 06z

\"\"

Headlines Friday Morning

  1. Alberta Clipper system \u2014> Northeast backside band of moderate to heavy snow into Sunday morning

  2. VERY COLD \u2014 this weekend across the Midwest/Great Lakes peaking this Sunday with the cold pool flooding into the Southeast for Monday morning.

  3. Ridge builds across the Lower 48 from coast-to-coast into Day 10, but questions remain if Christmas is a \u201cblow torch\u201d or the polar vortex can battle back and drop a few [very cold] troughs/lobes into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Weekend \u201cbaby\u201d Nor\u2019easter \u2014 All snow for land areas \u2014 woohoo, but how much QPF is available? 0.4\u201d to 0.5\u201d in NYC but less in Boston. So, 10:1 snow to liquid ratio = sweet spot of 4\u201d to 6\u201d of snowfall.

\"\"

Current Frontal Boundaries and Weather into Saturday morning

\"\"

Weather Trader is an entirely subscriber-supported publication [sweat equity] from Dr. Ryan Maue. To receive all new posts, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber, and please LIKE and SHARE posts. Coupon code [50% off Annual Upgrade \ud83c\udf85]

Low Temperatures Next 8-days | Until Saturday, Dec 20th

\"\"

Warming trend after Monday \u2014 well deserved after an abnormally very cold start to December.

Average Temperature Anomaly | December 1-10, 2025

\"\"

ECMWF 06z Precipitable Water Next 6-days | My favorite parameter

\"\"

Get 7 day free trial

Temperatures | Current to Next 15-days

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days

\"\"

Flagship European model ensemble solution for temperature anomaly next 15-days

The Lower 48 settles into a \u201cBlow Torch\u201d much above normal temperature pattern into the weekend after Christmas December 27-28, but eventually this pattern MUST break down, and the Canadian cold pool will find its away back into Lower 48. However, no clear signals about when/how that will happen (yet).

Temperature Anomaly Next 6-days | Into Wednesday afternoon

\"\"

Exceptionally cold air spills into the Midwest and Great Lakes into this weekend, but warmer air from the Southwest and Gulf of Mexico battles back \u2014> Light at the end of the tunnel into middle of next week.

RTMA | Current Temperature Analysis | 8:45 AM ET

\"\"

Average Lower 48 temperature was 31.7\u00b0F

\"\"

Still dealing with this brutal inversion layer + fog/mist in the California Central Valley \u2014 an ocean of fog with temperatures around 40\u00b0F

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | 8:45 AM ET

\"\"

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was 19\u00b0F ABOVE normal

Friday High Temperatures

\"\"

Saturday Low Temperatures

\"\"

Sunday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast Peak in Midwest + Great Lakes

\"\"

Frigid across the Midwest \u2014> colder than -20\u00b0F over Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas

Sunday Low Temperature Anomaly

\"\"

Monday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast Peak in Southeast

\"\"

Monday Low Temperature Anomaly

\"\"

7-Day Forecast | Chicago

\"\"

7-Day Forecast | Minneapolis

\"\"

7-Day Forecast | Atlanta

\"\"

NWS Precipitation Next 72-hours

\"\"

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

Blend of Models | 10 Days Precipitation Total

\"\"
\"\"

Blend of Models | Total Snowfall Next 10-Days

\"\"

Give a gift subscription

ECMWF AIFS-Single 06z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

\"\"

Couple more troughs into next weekend \u2014 Days 8-10 \u2026 and then the ridge builds across the Rocky Mountains \u2026 but notice the subtle trough \u2026 as the cold pool can travel downhill into the Great Lakes and Northeast and clip the Lower 48 with brutal Canadian cold. Fine line between warmth / thaw and continued exceptional winter cold into the last 10-days of December.

ECMWF 00z | Integrated Vapor Transport Next 10-days

\"\"

Parameter used for monitoring \u201catmospheric rivers\u201d usually along the U.S. west coast, but the idea works well for many other areas \u2014 highlighting midlatitude storm systems with warm conveyor belts (moisture plumes)

ECMWF 06z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

\"\"
\"\"
\"\"

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

\"\"

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 1\u201d | Next 15-days

\"\"

We\u2019ll be monitoring the 1\u201d chance of snowfall for a \u201cWhite Christmas\u201d in the coming weeks. This map is through morning December 26th.

ECMWF EPS 00z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 3\u201d | Next 15-days

\"\"
\"\"

Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean to December 26

\"\"

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 00z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 12 - Dec 16

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 17 - Dec 21

\"\"

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 22 - Dec 26

\"\"

Share Weather Trader

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

Active coupon codes:

50% off Annual Upgrade

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

NYC: 4\u201d

Alberta Clippers + Nor\u2019easter backside snow band = huge population seeing at least 3-inches of snowfall \u2026 and up to 8\u201d across a stripe of the Midwest from Des Moines to Indianapolis

", "claims": [], "assets": [], "provenance": { "built_at": "2026-09-10T14:46:14Z", "model": null, "cycle": null, "stores": [ "https://weather.substack.com/p/december-12-2025-friday-morning-winter" ], "mint_sha256": null, "pairing_rule": null, "detector": null, "detector_version": null, "inputs": { "substack_post_id": "181426574.december-12-2025-friday-morning-winter", "audience": "everyone", "type": "newsletter", "imported_from": "substack export" } }, "strength": 0.0, "tags": [ "archive", "everyone" ], "supersedes": null, "superseded_by": null, "source": "substack", "canonical": "https://weather.substack.com/p/december-12-2025-friday-morning-winter", "slug": "december-12-2025-friday-morning-winter-weather", "path": "/mp/814/", "url": "https://forecastpost.com/mp/814/", "desk_label": "Winter", "digest": "f1d9525e407023c02ade596e9d9822fab6fc25b2f1afd11459f0ca852e660e04" }