Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean

Wow! Not good for your utility bill — as the next couple weeks are trending colder with plenty of major winter weather and storms. Let’s talk about an “old fashioned” winter, right?

HRRR 22z | Simulated Radar Next 18-hours into 11 AM ET on Friday

Total Snowfall From HRRR Next 48-hours | 18z —> Saturday 1 PM ET

Like taking a paint brush and coloring the canvas with beautiful hues of blue and pink, my favorite maps (aside from precipitable water)

Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

Headlines Thursday Evening

1. Cold air behind strong Great Lakes storm system —> Lake Effect Snow Machine cranks up for Thurs-Sat — from Michigan into the Northeast.

2. Fast moving storm system will blanket the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes with yet another foot plus of snowfall.

3. The main polar vortex “lobe” of cold air makes it as far south as James Bay before rotating away in 7-10 days. However, another major cold pool is forming in Alaska and Western Canada — ready for the next pendulum swing to drag it across the Lower 48 — probably in the Dec 10-14 time frame. Take heed!

4. Watching the Northeast for a potential winter storm — but so far it is not phasing just right for a “bomb cyclone” … into middle of next week.

Black Friday Coupon: Ends November 30, 2025 for new/upgrade. At my end, the goal is to increase membership, both free and paid, to expand my reach on the Substack platform. Sometimes I’m number 5 or 85 [in the category] depending upon the weather. I’ve published over 300 posts per year, so we’re talking 25 cents per daily update! I do not do advertising, and nothing is done with the subscriber list. All growth is entirely organic.

Lower 48 | Frontal Boundaries and storm systems this evening

NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours — which won’t include entire storm event — see the RRFS-A (next up)

RRFS-A through 84-hours (Monday 1 AM ET) | Snowfall totals

These map are beautiful … RRFS-A is a 3-km resolution model and my color table is perfect. Everything about these maps makes me happy. This model will become operational soon — and cover all of North America = 3.5 TB/data per cycle with ensembles (!)

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total (includes liquid from snow)

Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

Colder air coming into the Midwest and Great Lakes behind the cold front this evening

Temperature Anomaly | 7:30 PM ET

Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was -2.5°F below normal

Black Friday Low Temperatures

191 million below freezing or ~ 60% of the Lower 48 population

Black Friday High Temperatures

Saturday High Temperatures

Sunday High Temperatures

Monday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast

Monday Low Temperature Anomaly

ECMWF EPS 12z | 15-day Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

MAJOR Cold pool formation underway into week 2 across Western Canada and Alaska

Quite the signal for “cold” into mid-December. Wow!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

-51°C at 500 mb over James Bay — with a major cold/Arctic blast / polar vortex thing

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6” | Next 15-days

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 12” | Next 15-days

ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 24” | Next 15-days

Yes — I’m showing the 2-feet plus probabilities! Mainly Lake Effect, of course.

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 27 - Dec 1

5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 2 - Dec 6

5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 7 - Dec 11

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS