{ "number": 800, "headline": "November 27, 2025 Thanksgiving Winter Weather", "standfirst": "Keep your shovels out in the Great Lakes but also Iowa and Chicago with major winter storm", "desk": "winter", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-11-28", "published": "2025-11-28T01:22:26.662000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Happy Thanksgiving, Gobble Gobble! Welcome to new subscribers and visitors! I am very thankful for your (fast) growing support heading into this crazy winter. This is post number 799.

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanMaue X @weathertrader)

Next 15-days Temperature Anomaly | Ensemble Mean

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Wow! Not good for your utility bill \u2014 as the next couple weeks are trending colder with plenty of major winter weather and storms. Let\u2019s talk about an \u201cold fashioned\u201d winter, right?

HRRR 22z | Simulated Radar Next 18-hours into 11 AM ET on Friday

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Total Snowfall From HRRR Next 48-hours | 18z \u2014> Saturday 1 PM ET

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Like taking a paint brush and coloring the canvas with beautiful hues of blue and pink, my favorite maps (aside from precipitable water)

Lower 48 precipitation type + MSLP for the next 6-days | ECMWF 18z

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Headlines Thursday Evening

  1. Cold air behind strong Great Lakes storm system \u2014> Lake Effect Snow Machine cranks up for Thurs-Sat \u2014 from Michigan into the Northeast.

  2. Fast moving storm system will blanket the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes with yet another foot plus of snowfall.

  3. The main polar vortex \u201clobe\u201d of cold air makes it as far south as James Bay before rotating away in 7-10 days. However, another major cold pool is forming in Alaska and Western Canada \u2014 ready for the next pendulum swing to drag it across the Lower 48 \u2014 probably in the Dec 10-14 time frame. Take heed!

  4. Watching the Northeast for a potential winter storm \u2014 but so far it is not phasing just right for a \u201cbomb cyclone\u201d \u2026 into middle of next week.

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Black Friday Coupon: Ends November 30, 2025 for new/upgrade. At my end, the goal is to increase membership, both free and paid, to expand my reach on the Substack platform. Sometimes I\u2019m number 5 or 85 [in the category] depending upon the weather. I\u2019ve published over 300 posts per year, so we\u2019re talking 25 cents per daily update! I do not do advertising, and nothing is done with the subscriber list. All growth is entirely organic.

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Lower 48 | Frontal Boundaries and storm systems this evening

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NWS Snowfall Next 72-hours \u2014 which won\u2019t include entire storm event \u2014 see the RRFS-A (next up)

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RRFS-A through 84-hours (Monday 1 AM ET) | Snowfall totals

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These map are beautiful \u2026 RRFS-A is a 3-km resolution model and my color table is perfect. Everything about these maps makes me happy. This model will become operational soon \u2014 and cover all of North America = 3.5 TB/data per cycle with ensembles (!)

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation Total (includes liquid from snow)

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Total Snowfall Next 7-Days

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Temperature Analysis | 7:30 PM ET

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Colder air coming into the Midwest and Great Lakes behind the cold front this evening

Temperature Anomaly | 7:30 PM ET

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Lower 48 Temperature Anomaly was -2.5\u00b0F below normal

Black Friday Low Temperatures

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191 million below freezing or ~ 60% of the Lower 48 population

Black Friday High Temperatures

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Saturday High Temperatures

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Sunday High Temperatures

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Monday Low Temperatures | Arctic Blast

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Monday Low Temperature Anomaly

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ECMWF EPS 12z | 15-day Ensemble Mean Temperature Anomaly

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MAJOR Cold pool formation underway into week 2 across Western Canada and Alaska

Quite the signal for \u201ccold\u201d into mid-December. Wow!

ECMWF AIFS 18z | Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 10-days

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-51\u00b0C at 500 mb over James Bay \u2014 with a major cold/Arctic blast / polar vortex thing

ECMWF 18z | Snowfall | Next 6-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Median Snowfall Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 6\u201d | Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 12\u201d | Next 15-days

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ECMWF EPS 12z | Ensemble Snowfall Probability > 24\u201d | Next 15-days

Yes \u2014 I\u2019m showing the 2-feet plus probabilities! Mainly Lake Effect, of course.

Temperature Anomaly | Next 15-days | ECMWF EPS 12z

5-Day Chunk #1 | Temperature Anomaly | Nov 27 - Dec 1

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5-Day Chunk #2 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 2 - Dec 6

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5-Day Chunk #3 | Temperature Anomaly | Dec 7 - Dec 11

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Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF and AIFS, NOAA AI-GFS/AI-GEFS

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Wow! Not good for your utility bill \u2014 as the next couple weeks are trending colder with plenty of major winter weather and storms. Let\u2019s talk about an \u201cold fashioned\u201d winter, right?

HRRR 22z | Simulated Radar Next 18-hours into 11 AM ET on Friday

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