Since we have the NHC cone for Tropical Storm Melissa, I will mainly post the “official forecast” and not nitpick or second guess the professionals in Miami. I don’t think it’s valuable to “raise awareness” by issuing my own proprietary “path” forecasts.

However, I will focus on particular model solutions that I think have merit and are on the right track, no pun intended, for Melissa especially for intensity up to Category 5.

Current IR Satellite | Atlantic Basin

Melissa is heavily sheared but in the next 3-4 days, that completely goes away leaving a vortex ready to explosively intensify over very warm ocean water (and deep warm).

ECMWF Wind Shear | Now and in 4-days

Ocean Surface Temperatures are 29°C to 30°C (+) in the Caribbean around Jamaica

HAFS Mesoscale Hurricane Model Forecast for the Ages

The 12z HAFS hurricane model went bonkers — with massive Category 5 (or extrapolated Category 7) solutions with 850 mb winds in excess of 200-knots and surface pressure in the 880s. Just incredible!

HAFS 18z | Version A

The 18z HAFS-B lost the storm in the beginning of the “nest” tracking — but found it later. So, the HAFS-A solution is really only available with full-nesting through 6-days, and it's a monster … 902 mb and 180 knot winds at 850 hPa — so a reduction from “flight level” to near-surface still means 160-knot sustained winds.

Simulated Satellite looks to be T 8.0 on Dvorak scale

For posterity, here is the HAFS-B 12z that blew up to 883 mb

Historically, this would be Wilma/Gilbert territory and potential to set record minimum pressure. This is a perfect environment for a Category 5+ hurricane once the shear vector actually aligns to assist the upper-level outflow channels.

Global Model | ECMWF 18z Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 6-days

Track of Melissa is tugged a bit northward on this 18z cycle as the trough in the Southeast is more intense than the 12z (and previous) solution. This would mean LESS westward movement — and perhaps temper the expected Category 5 intensity a little bit.

ECMWF Cyclonic Vorticity Next 6-days | 18z

Current ECMWF 18z | Control Track | Not a Perturbed Member of Ensemble

Compare to 12z ECMWF Track

Atlantic Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-Days | 12z ECMWF

The flagship 12z solution extends here into Day 10 — and shows a monster Hurricane Melissa spinning over the very warm western Caribbean before sprinting across eastern Cuba into the Atlantic. Still not worrying much about the East Coast — that would be 10 days down the road — and would require an extremely rare alignment or weather pattern to repeat a Sandy-like trough capture — while Hurricane Melissa maintains its tropical core.

I would put direct East Coast impacts currently at less than 10%.

However, even if Melissa stays well offshore, there is other weather happening along the East Coast with a mixture of troughs and low-pressure systems from the middle latitudes that can be impactful with rain and wind.

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

2025 Hurricane Season [Day 144]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 102

Melissa is asymmetric and heavily sheared but generating very deep convection with overshooting tops

Tropical Storm Melissa | NHC Cone

Major Hurricane in 4-days (Sunday) and Category 4 (115-knots) by Monday afternoon — very aggressive intensity forecast

ATCF Spaghetti | Melissa 13L

I don’t really want to discuss GFS — it has consistently been pushing Melissa quickly NE across Hispaniola — as a major outlier. NHC is discounting entirely.

Previous 6 HCCA Consensus Track Forecasts | Through 7 Days

This is the putative “answer key” along with the ECMWF EPS and Google Deep Mind.

Previous 6 NHC Official Track Forecasts | Through 5 Days

Google Deep Mind Forecast Tracks | Melissa 13L

50-members from this A.I. trained system — almost all showing a major to Category 5 hurricane

ECMWF 12z EPS Internal Tracker | Melissa 13L

Similar story from the EPS 12z (internal tracking routine provided by ECMWF) — the red tracks = major or even Category 5 hurricanes that linger longer SW of Jamaica before accelerating out-to-sea. There is even a member (#29) at 877 mb minimum pressure.

Summary:

The maps/animations should be a great baseline for the forecast iteration process in the coming days into this weekend as the Wind Shear over Melissa weakens, the vortex aligns, and rapid intensification blasts off.

Category 5 seems likely … with highest risk of catastrophic impacts to Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti.

Risk of unfathomable rainfall totals … 63” maximum from ECMWF 12z centered upon Jamaica

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 8 PM ET

70% chance of formation of another tropical cyclone (next name is Sonia) in the next several days.

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