{ "number": 771, "headline": "October 22, 2025 Melissa Expected to Rapidly Intensify", "standfirst": "Major hurricane intensity likely in 4-days", "desk": "tropics", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-10-23", "published": "2025-10-23T01:10:07.316000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good Evening! This is post 769 in this newsletter\u2019s 2-year history from Dr. Ryan Maue. It\u2019s like being a kid in a candy store with so many advanced tools, techniques, models and maps to investigate the progress and forecast of Tropical Storm Melissa. I\u2019ve been watching hurricanes and models for over 20-years \u2014 and watched the evolution of our world\u2019s models \u2014 so much improved!

Since we have the NHC cone for Tropical Storm Melissa, I will mainly post the \u201cofficial forecast\u201d and not nitpick or second guess the professionals in Miami. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s valuable to \u201craise awareness\u201d by issuing my own proprietary \u201cpath\u201d forecasts.

However, I will focus on particular model solutions that I think have merit and are on the right track, no pun intended, for Melissa especially for intensity up to Category 5.

Current IR Satellite | Atlantic Basin

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Melissa is heavily sheared but in the next 3-4 days, that completely goes away leaving a vortex ready to explosively intensify over very warm ocean water (and deep warm).

ECMWF Wind Shear | Now and in 4-days

Ocean Surface Temperatures are 29\u00b0C to 30\u00b0C (+) in the Caribbean around Jamaica

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HAFS Mesoscale Hurricane Model Forecast for the Ages

The 12z HAFS hurricane model went bonkers \u2014 with massive Category 5 (or extrapolated Category 7) solutions with 850 mb winds in excess of 200-knots and surface pressure in the 880s. Just incredible!

HAFS 18z | Version A

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The 18z HAFS-B lost the storm in the beginning of the \u201cnest\u201d tracking \u2014 but found it later. So, the HAFS-A solution is really only available with full-nesting through 6-days, and it's a monster \u2026 902 mb and 180 knot winds at 850 hPa \u2014 so a reduction from \u201cflight level\u201d to near-surface still means 160-knot sustained winds.

Simulated Satellite looks to be T 8.0 on Dvorak scale

For posterity, here is the HAFS-B 12z that blew up to 883 mb

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Historically, this would be Wilma/Gilbert territory and potential to set record minimum pressure. This is a perfect environment for a Category 5+ hurricane once the shear vector actually aligns to assist the upper-level outflow channels.

Global Model | ECMWF 18z Height Anomaly (500 hPa) Next 6-days

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Track of Melissa is tugged a bit northward on this 18z cycle as the trough in the Southeast is more intense than the 12z (and previous) solution. This would mean LESS westward movement \u2014 and perhaps temper the expected Category 5 intensity a little bit.

ECMWF Cyclonic Vorticity Next 6-days | 18z

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Current ECMWF 18z | Control Track | Not a Perturbed Member of Ensemble

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Compare to 12z ECMWF Track

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Atlantic Integrated Vapor Transport | Next 10-Days | 12z ECMWF

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The flagship 12z solution extends here into Day 10 \u2014 and shows a monster Hurricane Melissa spinning over the very warm western Caribbean before sprinting across eastern Cuba into the Atlantic. Still not worrying much about the East Coast \u2014 that would be 10 days down the road \u2014 and would require an extremely rare alignment or weather pattern to repeat a Sandy-like trough capture \u2014 while Hurricane Melissa maintains its tropical core.

I would put direct East Coast impacts currently at less than 10%.

However, even if Melissa stays well offshore, there is other weather happening along the East Coast with a mixture of troughs and low-pressure systems from the middle latitudes that can be impactful with rain and wind.

Weather Trader is a reader-supported newsletter with 1x to 2x daily weather updates. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber, and sharing!

Atlantic Basin Outlook | 8 PM ET Update

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2025 Hurricane Season [Day 144]. My FORECAST for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (near average)

2025 Season to Date: 13 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 3 Majors | ACE = 102

Melissa is asymmetric and heavily sheared but generating very deep convection with overshooting tops

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Tropical Storm Melissa | NHC Cone

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Major Hurricane in 4-days (Sunday) and Category 4 (115-knots) by Monday afternoon \u2014 very aggressive intensity forecast

ATCF Spaghetti | Melissa 13L

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I don\u2019t really want to discuss GFS \u2014 it has consistently been pushing Melissa quickly NE across Hispaniola \u2014 as a major outlier. NHC is discounting entirely.

Previous 6 HCCA Consensus Track Forecasts | Through 7 Days

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This is the putative \u201canswer key\u201d along with the ECMWF EPS and Google Deep Mind.

Previous 6 NHC Official Track Forecasts | Through 5 Days

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Google Deep Mind Forecast Tracks | Melissa 13L

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50-members from this A.I. trained system \u2014 almost all showing a major to Category 5 hurricane

ECMWF 12z EPS Internal Tracker | Melissa 13L

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Similar story from the EPS 12z (internal tracking routine provided by ECMWF) \u2014 the red tracks = major or even Category 5 hurricanes that linger longer SW of Jamaica before accelerating out-to-sea. There is even a member (#29) at 877 mb minimum pressure.

Summary:

The maps/animations should be a great baseline for the forecast iteration process in the coming days into this weekend as the Wind Shear over Melissa weakens, the vortex aligns, and rapid intensification blasts off.

Category 5 seems likely \u2026 with highest risk of catastrophic impacts to Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti.

Risk of unfathomable rainfall totals \u2026 63\u201d maximum from ECMWF 12z centered upon Jamaica

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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook | 8 PM ET

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70% chance of formation of another tropical cyclone (next name is Sonia) in the next several days.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

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Since we have the NHC cone for Tropical Storm Melissa, I will mainly post the \u201cofficial forecast\u201d and not nitpick or second guess the professionals in Miami. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s valuable to \u201craise awareness\u201d by issuing my own proprietary \u201cpath\u201d forecasts.

However, I will focus on particular model solutions that I think have merit and are on the right track, no pun intended, for Melissa especially for intensity up to Category 5.

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