September 2, 2025 Tuesday Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Gabrielle likely to form in next few days (70%)
September 2025 was the 7th-warmest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 67.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 66.0°F (+2.0°F).
September 2025 was the 15th-driest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 1.9in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.6in (-0.6in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Wave in Eastern MDR up to 70% chance of development according to NHC in next 7-days. The wave is currently within the monsoon trough / ITCZ but not showing immediate signs of development.
Full physics models in agreement that TS/HU Gabrielle forms in the next few days similar to Erin — but uncertainty after 7-days on track and intensity in central MDR. The system will be a VERY slow mover. Interesting the AIFS Single and Ensembles are now less aggressive perhaps due to lower 0.25° resolution.
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- 721 · laid 2025-09-02T21:13:07.677000Z
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