August 14, 2025 Thursday Tropical Storm Erin Update
Models show Major Hurricane Erin curving out to sea well off the East Coast
August 2025 was the 28th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 73.4°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+0.3°F).
August 2025 was the 27th-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Storm Erin (05L) maintaining intensity with more symmetric convection but the fast movement westward (17 mph) suggests the center is misaligned to the east. Erin will reach much warmer ocean water in coming days, and become a major hurricane east of the Bahamas. Ensembles show a tiny (2%) chance of a direct landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Showers in southern Gulf of Mexico bubbling up this morning with 20% chance of a depression or weak tropical storm prior to reaching Mexico later on Friday.
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