Rough day likely [High Risk of Severe Storms] across the mid-Mississippi River Valley centered on Memphis, Tennessee. Severe storms already embedded within a rather wide front boundary moving through Missouri and Arkansas.

Current radar through 8:30 AM CT

Simulated radar (HRRR 11z) shows a significant linearizing squall line intensifying across Arkansas and Missouri this morning and then pushing eastward into IN/KY/TN into the evening hours.

Zoom on Ohio River Valley (HRRR 11z)

Supercell + Tornado parameters show high values supporting Moderate + High Risk for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

6-Hourly Maximum Helicity

HRRR shows individual long-tracks with potentially rotating updrafts most intense this evening.

SPC High Risk [Day 1 — Wednesday] Corridor centered on Memphis

30% chance of Tornado within 25-miles

Large Hail and Damaging Winds over larger area from Southern Michigan into North Texas.

Synoptic Overview

Integrated Vapor Transport Next 6-days

Several days of moisture flowing out of the Caribbean through the Gulf coast into the mid-Mississippi River valley will lead to extreme rainfall totals and flooding.

The circulation associated with a strong subtropical ridge off the U.S. Southeast coast blocks the eastward advancement of the frontal boundary and instead serves as an effective circulation/convergence mechanism for an atmospheric river like moisture feed.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

70s and 80s ahead of the frontal boundary this afternoon. mid-80s into Cincinnati. 90s in South Georgia into Tampa, Florida. HOT.

Temperature Analysis | 8:00 AM ET

70s already into St. Louis early this morning.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 AM ET

Overall the Lower 48 is +1.6°F above normal with warmth ahead of the storm system.

Thursday Frontal Boundary

Thursday Convective Outlook

High Risk of Excessive Rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance

Storm Systems + Precipitation Type Next 6-Days

After the boatloads of moisture drop across the Mississippi to Tennessee to Ohio River Valleys, we get a break with a chilly, Canadian air mass into second week of April — maybe quite a long dry spell in the cards.

NWS 72-hours Precipitation and Snowfall

In the next 72-hours — NWS has large area of 6-8” of rainfall from SE Oklahoma into southern Indiana.

NWS now with 2” of snowfall in Denver.

NWS WPC Precipitation | Next 7-days

Still 8” to 12” from Arkansas to Cincy — high risk of flooding!

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation and Snowfall

ECMWF 06Z AIFS | Upper-Level Pattern for North America next 12-days

AIFS is consistent with major troughing for Days 7-10 — continuing for the following several days = abnormal cool period ahead for eastern U.S. after a few days of summertime heat and humidity.

ECMWF EPS 00z | 5-Day Chunk Temperature Anomaly

Days 1-5: April 2 - April 6

Days 6-10: April 7 - April 11

Days 11-15: April 12 - April 16

Who writes and researchers this Newsletter? Dr. Ryan N. Maue [X https://x.com/ryanmaue] with 20-years experience of daily weather model production and analysis. You may have seen my weather maps! I live in Atlanta but was born and raised in Northern Michigan. I know snow, and southern heat and humidity.

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