{ "number": 564, "headline": "April 2, 2025 Wednesday High Risk Severe Weather", "standfirst": "Major outbreak of tornadoes possible across mid-Mississippi River Valley", "desk": "notebook", "dateline": { "place": "Weather Trader", "state": null, "lat": null, "lon": null, "site_key": null, "site_name": null, "site_url": null, "accent": null }, "edition": "2025-04-02", "published": "2025-04-02T13:46:31.355000Z", "updated": null, "access": "free", "body_html": "
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Good morning.

Rough day likely [High Risk of Severe Storms] across the mid-Mississippi River Valley centered on Memphis, Tennessee. Severe storms already embedded within a rather wide front boundary moving through Missouri and Arkansas.

Current radar through 8:30 AM CT

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Simulated radar (HRRR 11z) shows a significant linearizing squall line intensifying across Arkansas and Missouri this morning and then pushing eastward into IN/KY/TN into the evening hours.

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Zoom on Ohio River Valley (HRRR 11z)

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Supercell + Tornado parameters show high values supporting Moderate + High Risk for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

6-Hourly Maximum Helicity

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HRRR shows individual long-tracks with potentially rotating updrafts most intense this evening.

SPC High Risk [Day 1 \u2014 Wednesday] Corridor centered on Memphis

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30% chance of Tornado within 25-miles

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Large Hail and Damaging Winds over larger area from Southern Michigan into North Texas.

Synoptic Overview

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Integrated Vapor Transport Next 6-days

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Several days of moisture flowing out of the Caribbean through the Gulf coast into the mid-Mississippi River valley will lead to extreme rainfall totals and flooding.

The circulation associated with a strong subtropical ridge off the U.S. Southeast coast blocks the eastward advancement of the frontal boundary and instead serves as an effective circulation/convergence mechanism for an atmospheric river like moisture feed.

High Temperatures on Wednesday

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70s and 80s ahead of the frontal boundary this afternoon. mid-80s into Cincinnati. 90s in South Georgia into Tampa, Florida. HOT.

Temperature Analysis | 8:00 AM ET

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70s already into St. Louis early this morning.

Temperature Anomaly | 8:00 AM ET

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Overall the Lower 48 is +1.6\u00b0F above normal with warmth ahead of the storm system.

Thursday Frontal Boundary

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Thursday Convective Outlook

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High Risk of Excessive Rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance

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Storm Systems + Precipitation Type Next 6-Days

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After the boatloads of moisture drop across the Mississippi to Tennessee to Ohio River Valleys, we get a break with a chilly, Canadian air mass into second week of April \u2014 maybe quite a long dry spell in the cards.

NWS 72-hours Precipitation and Snowfall

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In the next 72-hours \u2014 NWS has large area of 6-8\u201d of rainfall from SE Oklahoma into southern Indiana.

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NWS now with 2\u201d of snowfall in Denver.

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NWS WPC Precipitation | Next 7-days

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Still 8\u201d to 12\u201d from Arkansas to Cincy \u2014 high risk of flooding!

Blend of Models | 7 Days Precipitation and Snowfall

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ECMWF 06Z AIFS | Upper-Level Pattern for North America next 12-days

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AIFS is consistent with major troughing for Days 7-10 \u2014 continuing for the following several days = abnormal cool period ahead for eastern U.S. after a few days of summertime heat and humidity.

ECMWF EPS 00z | 5-Day Chunk Temperature Anomaly

Days 1-5: April 2 - April 6

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Days 6-10: April 7 - April 11

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Days 11-15: April 12 - April 16

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Who writes and researchers this Newsletter? Dr. Ryan N. Maue [X https://x.com/ryanmaue] with 20-years experience of daily weather model production and analysis. You may have seen my weather maps! I live in Atlanta but was born and raised in Northern Michigan. I know snow, and southern heat and humidity.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! Please subscribe there for real-time access to the newest maps, charts from all of the weather models including ECMWF.

", "body_key": null, "teaser_html": "

Rough day likely [High Risk of Severe Storms] across the mid-Mississippi River Valley centered on Memphis, Tennessee. Severe storms already embedded within a rather wide front boundary moving through Missouri and Arkansas.

Current radar through 8:30 AM CT

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